OIL & GAS trader: How high prices will go after Iran get sanctioned

Quote from drsteph:

Here's what's going to go down.

1. Sanctions applied by UN
2. Israel, claiming a security risk (bibi is next in line for PM spot post sharon and he's mossad and a hawk of hawks), takes out Iranian nuke facilities. (bunker buster nukes anyone?)
3. UN backs israel
4. Iran either backs down and plays nice OR
5. Something happens to warrant regime change
6. US provides the force projection into Iran - quick air war like beginning of Gulf I and II
7. Worldwide coalition of land forces provides occupying/peacekeeping function like currently in Iraq, led by europe, which allows europe permanent access to iranian oil (see where this is going?)
8. Israel shuts down terrorism out of unfriendlies (syria, lebanon)
9. Business as usual with 1% drain on world GDP and china pissed off.

Possible problems
1. Iranian nuke detonated in NYC or DC, after which most of the mideast turned into radioactive glass.
2. China threatens land based war due to denial of access to resources (not likely)
3. North Korea uses this as the chance to grab south korea (bad idea )

Ya heard it here first fellow ET'ers... this is a BIG deal. Hope lots of the stuff doesn't come to pass, but sure glad I got long energies at the beginning of the year!

P.S. Battle hardened veterans of a war 20 years ago? Most of those guys need knee replacements by now. Ridiculous.
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Are you Texas Cowboy?

Have somthing to say about oil price too :confused:
 
Quote from drsteph:

OK - here's my macro opinion and why this garbage above won't come to pass.

Today's conference with Bush and Merklel of Germany marked a sea-change in Europe's viewpoint towards the middle east and the muslim fundamentalist issue.

Congratulations, french muslim rioters, british terrorists, and spanish train bombers. Your summer of rioting and limited terror attacks served only to cause a massive reality check by the european powers and make them say - "Oh my god!?!? whatever were we thinking?!?!?" You singlehandedly did more to persuade pacifistic Germany, France, and Spain that your incursions must be stopped.

This is the beginning of a second coalition to handle Iran the way that Iraq should have been handled. Its fine to put egg on the US's face, but its another thing to threaten everyone. Furthermore, China is trying to gain access to Iran's oil outside of the open marketplace, and that probably can't be allowed.

Here's what's going to go down.

1. Sanctions applied by UN
2. Israel, claiming a security risk (bibi is next in line for PM spot post sharon and he's mossad and a hawk of hawks), takes out Iranian nuke facilities. (bunker buster nukes anyone?)
3. UN backs israel
4. Iran either backs down and plays nice OR
5. Something happens to warrant regime change
6. US provides the force projection into Iran - quick air war like beginning of Gulf I and II
7. Worldwide coalition of land forces provides occupying/peacekeeping function like currently in Iraq, led by europe, which allows europe permanent access to iranian oil (see where this is going?)
8. Israel shuts down terrorism out of unfriendlies (syria, lebanon)
9. Business as usual with 1% drain on world GDP and china pissed off.

Possible problems
1. Iranian nuke detonated in NYC or DC, after which most of the mideast turned into radioactive glass.
2. China threatens land based war due to denial of access to resources (not likely)
3. North Korea uses this as the chance to grab south korea (bad idea )

Ya heard it here first fellow ET'ers... this is a BIG deal. Hope lots of the stuff doesn't come to pass, but sure glad I got long energies at the beginning of the year!

P.S. Battle hardened veterans of a war 20 years ago? Most of those guys need knee replacements by now. Ridiculous.
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Germany doens't have the moral foundation to do anything about anything concerning tryany. It gave us Hitler and is likely to give us another tyrant one day.

This visit by her was all bullshit. Bush knows he can't trust them. Germany and France both are cutting deals with Iran on the side.

The reason we had to handle Iraq alone is because the german, french and russian leaders were being bribed to stay out of it just like Iran is apt to do this time or is already doing it.


Europe is corrupt to the bone and can not be trusted.

John
 
Iran bothers Israel more than it does US or Europe. US should let Israelis fly their attack squadrons into Iraqi airstrips (secretly) and from there they can plan a quick and crippling attack on the chosen sites and fly back to either Iraq bases or to Israel. The current state of world affairs does not allow a roughe, terrorism sponsoring nations like Iran, Syria, North Korea to have nukes. US is on the right track, however it should limit its options to only ariel bombing, sending men and machines on ground would prove to be another Iraq and might even worsen Iraqi situation. Once Iran's nuke labs are bombed out it is upto its people to decide whom they want to keep in power.

Europe has traditionally been anti-Jewish so do not expect much help from Germans or French until and unless Mullahs in Iran directly threaten them.
 
Quote from slackeral:

Heres my scenario: With sanctions blocked in the UN security council by China and/or Russia, Bush gives tacit approval to Israel to strike Iran, which turns the Iraqui shia against us nad ignites a much larger insurrection against us, supported by Iran, which maybe we then have to invade. Muslim sentiment across the Mideast is further inflamed nad united against us. OPEC takes the opportunity to embargo the west just like they did in the 70's when there was an Israeli war and tight supply situation in the west. They can still sell to the Chinese for subsistence and might not have much choice if their domestic situations deteriorate.
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I think your scenario is more close to reality except the last part
(with exception to US) if US tries to invade iran with land forces

I don't think US will ever invade Iran, except for Air attack,
and that would be done by US, not Isreal

But i see the sanction happening, and Air strikes will follow
because of Sanction fail to have any affect
 
Quote from jficquette:

The reason we had to handle Iraq alone is because the german, french and russian leaders were being bribed to stay out of it just like Iran is apt to do this time or is already doing it.


Europe is corrupt to the bone and can not be trusted.

John
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This is intersting subject you and TOC Brought up, never thought
of it, and never heard from anyone before, may be a secret kept
hidden by Iran that doesn't come to an Avarage iranian brain :confused:
 
Quote from toc:

Europe has traditionally been anti-Jewish so do not expect much help from Germans or French until and unless Mullahs in Iran directly threaten them.
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Iran still have good relation with UK, German, franch,..
They all have Embassy in Tehran, with UK's Big as a
green park

Also US Oil companies have long been objecting to Bush
policy, why they can't take part in Iran oil industry, while
said countries are all binifting
 
Quote from Nana Trader:

Iran sereve is at least twice as much Iraq, they just found a new reserve that can feed iran for nearly another 75 years alone, that's why recently john mackine said iran is sleeping on sea of Oil, why they need nuclear power generator
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All I see is Iran bumping Iraq to #3 in 2005. Perhaps this new discovery is the reason. But twice as much as Iraq? I don't think so. Do you have a link?

At any rate, >100 billion barrels of oil is sleeping on a sea of oil, and everybody knows Iran is using nuclear technology to develop the bomb.

As I've implied in the last post, whatever sanctions are placed on Iran, or whatever Iran tries to do with their oil flow, the price of oil can be stabilized by future production coming from Iraq to offset any Iranian (or other) influence that may have on the oil markets.
 
Quote from Sam123:


At any rate, >100 billion barrels of oil is sleeping on a sea of oil, and everybody knows Iran is using nuclear technology to develop the bomb.
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-There are still many undiscovered areas, because of restriction
that applies

-Why american don't take it another way? I don't understand
I say the reason is, Iran despite having lot of Oil, still wants to lessen it's dependency on Oil in future (Makes Iran produce less oil, not only this save iran lot of oil but drive the prices up little bit), by having power generator from uranium

Iran starting Oil exchange market soon, and they will price it in Euro, which cause more collapse in dollar and US economy

I think US is more worried about Iran economic progress than any if terror threat
 
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