Oil-Exposed Currencies Tank

T

The Humble Bunch

Just a thought.
The currencies of oil-exposed countries came under pressure on Monday after Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing pricing for its crude by the most in more than 30 years. What happens if Saudi's MBS and Russia's putin don't comply with an agreement to OPEC+ rules? Just shows how these other countries are 3rd wheels. They either don't withdraw, nor do they be friend's with oil rich countries like venezuela. The agreement solely was "better" than OPEC but hey....gimmie that oil.
 
The Humble Bunch said:
Just a thought.
The currencies of oil-exposed countries came under pressure on Monday after Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing pricing for its crude by the most in more than 30 years. What happens if Saudi's MBS and Russia's putin don't comply with an agreement to OPEC+ rules? Just shows how these other countries are 3rd wheels. They either don't withdraw, nor do they be friend's with oil rich countries like venezuela. The agreement solely was "better" than OPEC but hey....gimmie that oil.
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I think you missed what happened. There is no OPEC+ a the moment, it's everyone produce as much as you can as fast as you can. There's no agreement to comply with. And the Saudis didn't slash prices, that was a result of the massive supply increase which Russia actually instigated by refusing to agree to continue supply curbs. Venezuela.... they're along for the ride and it's not going to be a fun one for them.
 
Sig said:
I think you missed what happened. There is no OPEC+ a the moment, it's everyone produce as much as you can as fast as you can. There's no agreement to comply with. And the Saudis didn't slash prices, that was a result of the massive supply increase which Russia actually instigated by refusing to agree to continue supply curbs. Venezuela.... they're along for the ride and it's not going to be a fun one for them.
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A game theoretic model of economics (Cartel Theory of Oligopoly) argues that cartelizations like OPEC+ always break down even if they do re-cartelize. This is due to the fact that at some "finite" point in the future the dominant strategy shifts toward non-cooperative oligopoly (cheating). This will back-propogate causing the one or the other to preemptively cheat (Russia), the idea being that Russia may know that OPEC+ may be disadvantageous in the future, withdrawing preemptively now in spite of the fact that is still advantageous.

In spite of the fact that it behooves them both to price fix, they would rather fight over the US.

Secondly, in spite of the fact that everybody involved knows this, the theory still holds. History repeats and everybody falls back into the same traps.
 
hhiusa said:
A game theoretic model of economics (Cartel Theory of Oligopoly) argues that cartelizations like OPEC+ always break down even if they do re-cartelize. This is due to the fact that at some "finite" point in the future the dominant strategy shifts toward non-cooperative oligopoly (cheating). This will back-propogate causing the one or the other to preemptively cheat (Russia), the idea being that Russia may know that OPEC+ may be disadvantageous in the future, withdrawing preemptively now in spite of the fact that is still advantageous.

In spite of the fact that it behooves them both to price fix, they would rather fight over the US.

Secondly, in spite of the fact that everybody involved knows this, the theory still holds. History repeats and everybody falls back into the same traps.
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"re-cartelize" sounds like something that happens in your knee joints:D

The think it's a broader game theory model then that. In any repeating cooperate/defect game the optimal strategy is always "tit for tat", i.e. you always do exactly what your opponent does. Leads to the same cyclical thing when one party is less then fully rational/or has a short memory without the need for funny sounding words.:cool:

On the flip side of OPEC, the organizations that euphemistically call themselves "farmers cooperatives" as well as things like "NFL" and "NBA" but are actually cartels have managed to keep the cartel together pretty solidly for decades at least. Try buying a cranberry that the Ocean Spray cartel didn't touch!
 
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Sig said:
"re-cartelize" sounds like something that happens in your knee joints:D

The think it's a broader game theory model then that. In any repeating cooperate/defect game the optimal strategy is always "tit for tat", i.e. you always do exactly what your opponent does. Leads to the same cyclical thing when one party is less then fully rational/or has a short memory without the need for funny sounding words.:cool:

On the flip side of OPEC, the organizations that euphemistically call themselves "farmers cooperatives" as well as things like "NFL" and "NBA" but are actually cartels have managed to keep the cartel together pretty solidly for decades at least. Try buying a cranberry that the Ocean Spray cartel didn't touch!
More...

The NBA is not a cartel. The NFL, well ... watch this.
 
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