Oil could hit $220 on MidEast, N Africa

Quote from misterno:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-equals-china-as-gdp-recoups-lehman-loss.html

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkish-car-sales-hit-record-high-2011-01-11

By the way 1 liter of gas in Turkey is 4.08TL where 1 USD = 1.59TL

So that means; 4.08X3.785/1.59 = $9.71/gallon

Yet, car sales is exploding, of course mostly small cars

Actually your article disproves your argument, and I quote:

"The reason is people adjusted accordingly meaning small cars, small buses, efficient machines less consumption but more traveling done with less gas."

Turkish people were able to adjust due to the higher economic output in their economy and an overall increase in purchasing power. One should not extrapolate this scenario to the US situation and expect that we will similarly adapt when unemployment still remains high, real income is decreased by recent oil spike, food stamp usage is at all-times highs, housing is still depressed and states face large deficits.

In the short term, an oil spike is inelastic which causes an immediate reduction in real income. Add the fact that the US economy is still struggling I strongly doubt it that this so called "adjustment" will occur wih the same effectiveness that you anticipate.
 
Quote from blackjack007:

there will be no recession just because oil hits $150 or $200. people will spend less but oil companies will make more, so it's offsetting. oil companies are included in GDP right?

in 2008 when oil hit $150, the oil companies and the state of alaska were making money hand over fist. alaska had a massive budget surplus that year -- in the middle of a recession!!

there are plenty of benefactors to high oil prices.

No recession? DRYS has been falling for three months and is in two year low territory. Socialism is collapsing all over the world, there is evidence of a worldwide contraction reflected in the cost of shipping container usage... and now an oil shock!!

Obama is going the way of Carter actually, funny how that works...
 
You would want to fade it.

Last time we got to $145 ish, the first couple DOE reports showed that demand fell like a meteor from the heavens - in a matter of several months we were trading at $35.

The producers know all too well that demand is EXTREMELY price sensitive. Demand is not a constant by any means. When we were at $145, the Summer driving season was non-existent, and refineries were not taking any supply - it was purely a speculative bubble. Rest assured that the producers were selling hard into the last big price spike.

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Quote from bone:

The producers know all too well that demand is EXTREMELY price sensitive. ]

Artificial or real demand? If you say both, it seems pointless statement.:confused:
 
Nut, the only demand I refer to is 'real' demand as it relates to DOE weekly supply and demand inventory reports. They collect real PADD data.
 
Quote from Corelio:

Actually your article disproves your argument, and I quote:

"The reason is people adjusted accordingly meaning small cars, small buses, efficient machines less consumption but more traveling done with less gas."

Turkish people were able to adjust due to the higher economic output in their economy and an overall increase in purchasing power. One should not extrapolate this scenario to the US situation and expect that we will similarly adapt when unemployment still remains high, real income is decreased by recent oil spike, food stamp usage is at all-times highs, housing is still depressed and states face large deficits.

In the short term, an oil spike is inelastic which causes an immediate reduction in real income. Add the fact that the US economy is still struggling I strongly doubt it that this so called "adjustment" will occur wih the same effectiveness that you anticipate.

I am not sure what you are trying to say

All I am saying is; Americans will get used to small cars less traveling less energy spending

Because they will not have a choice just like in Turkey

People making $1/hour but gas is close to $10/gal so people ADJUST accordingly.
 
Quote from Eight:

No recession? DRYS has been falling for three months and is in two year low territory.

Brazils world-leading iron ore producer Vale has designed and ordered a new ship ; the Chinamax. This 400,000dwt leviathan will transport iron ore to China and blow the paltry Capesizes and Panamax runabouts out of the water. It will be like Lasers taking on Wild Oats XI. And there wont be just one. The first Chinamax is due in mid-2011 but by end-2013, thirty are planned to hit the water.

bdi%20v%20crb.jpg


http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8208680
 
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