Oil could be about to make a move?

B

BlueStreek

Pro`s:

1) Contango narrowing
2) Market way oversold--Dow--even if GM,C, BAC go to 0 only 70 dow points in total--pretty remarkable actually.
3) We are do for a 1500 point rally--maybe beginning of March this starts to happen.
4) Inventory report drawdown--supply is 8% lower yoy from imports
5)Not too many shorting opportunity money left in the market
6)Treasury returns & Money Market money needs to find a new home
7) inflation trade might be back on with money flowing into commodities as a hedge of future inflation worries over excessive currency devaluation
8)Oil starts to move up in March for summer driving season
9) Shorts will probably be squeezed if crude breaks out above $44
 
More long term oil SHORT holders are bailing as the overall market sits just above a major breakdown to new lows or bounce area. The thinking is, why be in the way of a potential equities market bounce area while still heavy short in oil......it was the perfect time to take heavy profits off the table into oil's big drop last few days. Heck, oil SHORT players have made a KILLING since July 2008.....they had a great ride! :cool:
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

More long term oil SHORT holders are bailing as the overall market sits just above a major breakdown to new lows or bounce area. The thinking is, why be in the way of a potential equities market bounce area while still heavy short in oil......it was the perfect time to take some heavy profits off the table into oil's big drop last few days. Heck, oil SHORT players have made a KILLING since July 2008.....they had a great ride! :cool:
More...
Also, oil is now into a price compression zone......this is the time to be a LONG side player for the longer term picture imo.....who cares if oil goes to $25....keep BUYING! :cool:
 
a 1500 point rally starting up?

Support would have to hold for that to happen and some sort of positive news.
There is no positive news.
Things are getting worse.
Market WAS expecting 3rd and 4th qtr econo0my and earnings to0 rebound and that is looking unlikely and the market is getting ready to reprice itself and test and likely break the support. Markets were priced for that rebound that doesn't look likely.
IF we hold then we get a nice rally.
But I just don't see that happening, but if it does I'll be there.

Happy Trades
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

More long term oil SHORT holders are bailing as the overall market sits just above a major breakdown to new lows or bounce area. The thinking is, why be in the way of a potential equities market bounce area while still heavy short in oil......it was the perfect time to take heavy profits off the table into oil's big drop last few days. Heck, oil SHORT players have made a KILLING since July 2008.....they had a great ride! :cool:
More...

The March contract expires tomorrow.
 
Be careful. They tried this last month. Let them play for 2 weeks. They are front running the inflation trade, it just isn't there yet. AA - X your canaries in the coal mine. They may be right, I wouldn't jump in just yet..
 
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