Oil bubble

[Sparohok]

Quote from razorack:

Look back to 97 when oil hit $12 barrel. that was due to growth slowing not production increasing.

Wrong! OPEC increased production by 2.5mbpd in December '97 just as Asian demand was getting clobbered. It was a mistake they haven't quickly forgotten. Still, a few production cuts later and oil was back in their price band.

Today, the situation is very different. OPEC is pumping flat out. They're talking about bumping quotas 500kbpd but at these prices nobody's paying attention to quotas anyway. Even the Saudis are telling the market they can't do anything about the supply situation.

Martin

 

[cakulev]

As of last month, global supply was 85.0M barrels per day and global demand was 82.1M barrels per day. This is the widest gap since May 1998.

 

[spyderman]

I have no problem fading Goldman or Morgan......but not
T. Boone Pickens!

 

[Apex Capital]

Quote from razorack:

"You need more than growth slowing down to bring prices down,"

Look back to 97 when oil hit $12 barrel. that was due to growth slowing not production increasing.

WRONG.

OPEC was pumping like mad to teach all of the "cheaters" what it is like to go against the Cartel.
And as a result, they grabbed huge amounts of market-share in the process! It was a "win-win" for them.

This, combined with a slowing Asia sent oil down to $12 in '97.

 

[cakulev]

Quote from cakulev:

As of last month, global supply was 85.0M barrels per day and global demand was 82.1M barrels per day. This is the widest gap since May 1998.

May 1998 was during the Asian crisis when oil was at about $15/bbl.

 

[aPismoClam]

never should have let the enviro-girlie-boys scare us out of building nukes. Electricity should not be generated w/crude -- it's a nightmare of an arrangement, logistically.

when oil was dirt cheap, it was fine. But that's not the case now. Electrical demand is suited for the sort of distribution that Nuke plant allows -- but trucking and pumping in crude to spin turbines is like powering a car w/rubber bands because they're cheap. It might work, but it's a long way from optimal.

imho.

 

[cakulev]

If you look at the retail gas prices in Japan or Europe they are 2-3 times higher than in USA. Restraining demand in crude oil demand is easiest if we constrain US gasoline consumption. This can be easily done if the government raises taxes on gasoline so they get closer to the prices of gasoline in other developed countries. The additional tax revenue can be spent on funding alternative energy projects or building better mass transport infrastructure.
But I realize this is political unacceptable.

 

[aPismoClam]

Quote from cakulev:

If you look at the retail gas prices in Japan or Europe they are 2-3 times higher than in USA. Restraining demand in crude oil demand is easiest if we constrain US gasoline consumption. This can be easily done if the government raises taxes on gasoline so they get closer to the prices of gasoline in other developed countries. The additional tax revenue can be spent on funding alternative energy projects or building better mass transport infrastructure.
But I realize this is political unacceptable.

unacceptable and stupid. why curb demand for something that everyone needs and is perfect for the job? power generation should not be competing w/transportation for fuel.

duh.

 

[cakulev]

Quote from aPismoClam:

unacceptable and stupid. why curb demand for something that everyone needs and is perfect for the job? power generation should not be competing w/transportation for fuel.

duh.

Because you’ll end up with much more efficient use of gasoline similar with countries such as Japan and Germany, while not affecting your income (long run). If there would be warranty that high gasoline prices will remain high, there would be tremendous investment in alternative energy.
Fuel is involved in power generation, electricity is involved in transportation. So they are competing.

 

[aPismoClam]

Quote from cakulev:

Because you’ll end up with much more efficient use of gasoline similar with countries such as Japan and Germany, while not affecting your income (long run). If there would be warranty that high gasoline prices will remain high, there would be tremendous investment in alternative energy.
Fuel is involved in power generation, electricity is involved in transportation. So they are competing.

ummm....well, i know there are hybrid cars, and I know that there is a little town in Florida that trucks in diesel to generate electricity, but my point is that it's dumb. power can be more efficiently generated by large scale ops like nuclear. transportation requires portable fuel and gasoline (or a combustible liquid) is ideal for the purpose.

if power generation wasn't sucking up crude, gasoline couldn't possibly be as high. nor should it be.