Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Even though buying 1268 worked this morning, I would not buy this 1268-1270 area anymore. We may bounce off these levels, but each time it gets trampled, it becomes less and less of a support point, and an ominous sign.

It is interesting. Yesterday on the close, I would have given 3:1 odds that we would be higher today on the open and most of the day, perhaps even a close above 1300 SPX. So much for that.

nitro
 
Markets are funny and react over and over to the same news. The US and Israel have threatened Iran for how many years now over their program to develop nuclear weapons grade plutonium? Yet, each time the market reacts as if it were freshly painted news.

Sheesh. I would ignore all these rumors, and when Iran actually gets bombed, ok that is news.

nitro
 
I am far less enthusiastic about the GM numbers than the market is. So giving away cars is good? Did F have similar numbers? Or perhaps the market is focusing on the consumer not being tapped? This is all news?

Ok.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

3) The big one, US currency intervention. I would expect QM to lose $10+ on that news, and SIFs to have a monster rally.
More...

Intervention??? With what are they going to intervene? The US government has no FX reserves to speak of.
 
Quote from moo:

Intervention??? With what are they going to intervene? The US government has no FX reserves to speak of.
More...
How about going to Fort Knox and flooding the market with gold supply? Or what about flooding the market with oil by opening up th SPR?

It is not going to happen. The US says it has a strong $ policy, but it may be a play on words since this can't be what they mean. So they must believe that where the $ sits suits them.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/8802.pdf


nitro
 
ES/NQ slightly out of whack now, but it was considerably out of whack earlier.

I would not sell short intra day. Only strong resistance is 1292.xx and that is a long way from here.

nitro
 
Normally QM sell off of this magnitude would be bullish for equities, at least in the short term. Since ES has gone red while NQ still green, it can be implied that there are no buyers currently of stocks one would normally buy on an oil selloff. Hence ES is being taken down by index selling.

Very difficult here imo. I still would not sell with NQ green. If NQ goes red and weakens considerably, SIFs are in grave danger.

nitro
 
Yikes.

Still extremely difficult action imo, and I would not short!

My systems are selling like crazy, but I have the last say because I hedge. What am I doing? I am just as confused as I sound. I have strict rules for "overriding" the system. This is one of them and I don't like hugely short.

NQ red, but only mildly so. Grave grave danger, but can still pull out of it. Prudence is the better side of courage right now, imo.

nitro
 
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