Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Quote from nitro:

...

As far as XLF is concerned, if we bought XLF on the SPX gap fill, we got lucky on the upgrade. Still, it was the right decision, not only for the short term, but imo for the long term, even if the ensuing action over the next couple of weeks/month will show the investment wrong (the swing trade can't be wrong, unless you let it turn into a loser.) The point is that you have to buy support, and most of the time that support is right.

nitro
More...

Well, XLF has taking it right on the chin since that upgrade. The only thing that swing trade got you is break even if you were very disciplined. :(

I wish I understood better what the fear of the sellers is on the financials. There are several possibilities. I honestly thought most if not all of the doomsday scenarios were already well priced in the sector. I guess not. Could it be the FFFs showing odds that the FED will take all these cuts back soon? Could the market be that stupid and not have realized that was imminent? It will be very interesting to see if we go to 1270 SPX again, if the financials lead there first, and when the bottom sets, what leads the market higher...

C at 18.56. Wow. I tell you $15 is very possible, and I just don't see how anyone can resist chipping at it slowly for a two year hold. Heck, take a look at C-PS or C-PR.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=C-PR
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=c-ps


If you are worried about C imploding, sell the common and buy one of these, in the right ratio. That at least gives you a nearly risk free dividend arb, and traders can let go the common short hedge as a trading vehicle, or altogether when the market shows signs of turning. The risk is that C raises the common dividend, an extremely unlikely scenario in the short term. But that risk is not unique to this pair - you have to pay attention on these pair trades.


nitro
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

What about our "friendly neighbourhood bank" Goldman Sachs target of 1160, nitro ? :)
More...
Do you believe this is out of the question? Seems completely possible to me now...Probable? Let's see if this is another higher low, or setting the stage for new lows.

I know for sure I won't be buying 1270, except for an intra-day support for a few handles.

1292 first support. 1270 last train...

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:



I know for sure I won't be buying 1270, except for an intra-day support for a few handles.

1292 first support. 1270 last train...

nitro [/B]
More...

Not sure if I understand so if it hits 1270, its all downhill from there?
 
Quote from dont:

Not sure if I understand so if it hits 1270, its all downhill from there?
More...
The odds of a triple bottom as opposed to new lows are 20:80.

We will buy 1270, but only intra-day.

nitro
 
1292.xx SPX is the only place we buy for an intra-day trade between here, 1308.xx, and there, imo.

Imo, 1292.xx imminent, perhaps even today.

nitro
 
This might be a day where not only does SPX lose 2%, but oil related stocks lose 3 4 5%. It could be a reduce risk day.

On that mini sell off, SPX held it's ground against SIFs. That won't end well...

nitro
 
Interesting. There is not a great deal to cause this rally. There are no real seasonal reason for it, now news. Other than oil being tame, it is just bargain hunting imo.

Was there support at 1305-1308? Minimal, but now it is support.

VIX has dipped some but still green. The real tell-sign isn't the vol (VIX) moving little, but the front month ATM vol-of-vol taking a hit.

nitro
 
VIX has now gone well red, with the ATM vol-of-vol steady.

We have probably seen all the action today. Don't churn. Only trading off oil for small gains is all that is worth it imo.

nitro
 
Other than the obvious, the most important focus for the trader not only today, but the next few days, is mind your seasonality. EOM and EOQ upon us. That changes everything.

As far as the FED goes, I give it 1% chance of a rate hike. The language may cause SIFs to sell off moderately at first, but I think SIFs go much higher over the next few days, assuming no unexpected FED language, and of course oil staying the trading range it has been in, to lower. If you are an equity trader, mostly you want to be aggressive with what has been doing well until very early July (1 or 2nd), and sell of reduce what has sucked over the last quarter. That's the forrest, or the fundamentals.

Technically, resistance on the way up the same as support on the way down.

nitro
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top