Oil beginning to threaten SIFs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
On the plus side, the gap has filled. On the minus side, the market is closing on the lows.
Not good. However, remember what happened on the upside at 1420 SPX. It overshot by about 20 handles, and then was rebuffed hard. Same may happen here in reverse.
Fear factor as measured by VIX minimal. Notice YM is getting flows while ES still selling off...So instead of buying put protection, perhaps they are hiding money in safe big cap.
nitro
Not good. However, remember what happened on the upside at 1420 SPX. It overshot by about 20 handles, and then was rebuffed hard. Same may happen here in reverse.
Fear factor as measured by VIX minimal. Notice YM is getting flows while ES still selling off...So instead of buying put protection, perhaps they are hiding money in safe big cap.
nitro
Would not be surprised to see all of yesterdays loses recovered today. The question for the longer term trader/investor is, is this a relief rally or a change in trend?
As far as XLF is concerned, if we bought XLF on the SPX gap fill, we got lucky on the upgrade. Still, it was the right decision, not only for the short term, but imo for the long term, even if the ensuing action over the next couple of weeks/month will show the investment wrong (the swing trade can't be wrong, unless you let it turn into a loser.) The point is that you have to buy support, and most of the time that support is right.
nitro
As far as XLF is concerned, if we bought XLF on the SPX gap fill, we got lucky on the upgrade. Still, it was the right decision, not only for the short term, but imo for the long term, even if the ensuing action over the next couple of weeks/month will show the investment wrong (the swing trade can't be wrong, unless you let it turn into a loser.) The point is that you have to buy support, and most of the time that support is right.
nitro
Obvious intra-day continuation pennant forming/formed SPX. This is a resolution trade forming. Simple analysis will let you know what to do to either direction.
Right now tech is coupled to oil, and that is likely the deciding factor for SPX, unless NQ decouples from oil at least intra-day, in which case it complicates the "simple" analysis. The later in the day, the less the coupling matters and momentum (serial-correlation as opposed to cross-correlation) takes over. [Note: oil/NQ correlation is indirect through oil effects on IRs.)
Imo stand aside until clarification, with buy/sell stop orders on either side of the pennant trendlines in the market for a breakout/breakdown. Your stop loss on a fill would then be the greater of, other side of the pennant trendline, or 2.5 handles. Your stop gain should be at least five, but price action dictates exit.
The harder one to take is the short because it is counter intra-day trend, and that is our time frame for this trade. On the other hand, this rally is tenous, as the volume is dismal. Don't you love all the contradictions?
nitro
Right now tech is coupled to oil, and that is likely the deciding factor for SPX, unless NQ decouples from oil at least intra-day, in which case it complicates the "simple" analysis. The later in the day, the less the coupling matters and momentum (serial-correlation as opposed to cross-correlation) takes over. [Note: oil/NQ correlation is indirect through oil effects on IRs.)
Imo stand aside until clarification, with buy/sell stop orders on either side of the pennant trendlines in the market for a breakout/breakdown. Your stop loss on a fill would then be the greater of, other side of the pennant trendline, or 2.5 handles. Your stop gain should be at least five, but price action dictates exit.
The harder one to take is the short because it is counter intra-day trend, and that is our time frame for this trade. On the other hand, this rally is tenous, as the volume is dismal. Don't you love all the contradictions?
nitro
If you took the breakdown, you have a tidy unrealized profit. Don't take it. NQ is weakening. The more NQ weakens, the more ammenable you should be to let short ES ride. Obvious support is 1338 SPX, and some will even play the two day gap fill. If NQ strengthens, immediately take profits or take B/E. This trade cannot turn into a loser now.
Either way, move stops to B/E once your initial profit target is hit and then trail it.
nitro
Either way, move stops to B/E once your initial profit target is hit and then trail it.
nitro
This price action in SPX is eerily similar to yesterdays price action. There is a big difference though in that NQ is not weak today.
I would be very careful shorting ES (in fact I wouldn't do it at all), unless NQ weakens dramatically. Otherwise, you may find yourself on the other side of a massive one bar short squeeze.
If you want to short, imo it is the wrong market to do it in, and your poles are reversed today. Best to stand aside.
nitro
I would be very careful shorting ES (in fact I wouldn't do it at all), unless NQ weakens dramatically. Otherwise, you may find yourself on the other side of a massive one bar short squeeze.
If you want to short, imo it is the wrong market to do it in, and your poles are reversed today. Best to stand aside.
nitro