Oil beginning to threaten SIFs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Uh,
The gap is 1338 ish, not 1342. What can I say, I am getting old and blind
Sorry.
Very dangerous potentially from an opportunity cost point of view, to not go long and wait for a complete gap fill since the market can get away while you wait for perfection, and for a handle or two, you miss +fifty. In fact, I bet you the late rally today was based on similar analysis by institutions. You think they are worried about ten handles when they are looking for one hundred++ handles?
I may still go long at 1340 - 1342, and add at 1338.xx. First, we have to get there.
nitro
The gap is 1338 ish, not 1342. What can I say, I am getting old and blind
Sorry.Very dangerous potentially from an opportunity cost point of view, to not go long and wait for a complete gap fill since the market can get away while you wait for perfection, and for a handle or two, you miss +fifty. In fact, I bet you the late rally today was based on similar analysis by institutions. You think they are worried about ten handles when they are looking for one hundred++ handles?
I may still go long at 1340 - 1342, and add at 1338.xx. First, we have to get there.
nitro
1350 SPX has proven a worthy support. Once that goes, it is essentially imminent of a gap fill [see commentary in above posts], probably that day, i.e., today.
This last big bar down is ominous.
DJX outperforming again. HUM, BDK etc hide-your-money stocks doing well. They are a target to get slammed if we go much lower.
nitro
This last big bar down is ominous.
DJX outperforming again. HUM, BDK etc hide-your-money stocks doing well. They are a target to get slammed if we go much lower.
nitro
Ok, 1338 - 1342 area in sight. We buy in there somewhere depending on our aggressiveness and style. We still have stops and don't get married to your position. If you are wrong, get out and wait for another sign.
If we go clearly through 1338, uh, well, let's get there first, but it aint good.
As far as XLF or your favorite financial, imo this is the area to start accumulating with non-trivial size.
nitro
If we go clearly through 1338, uh, well, let's get there first, but it aint good.
As far as XLF or your favorite financial, imo this is the area to start accumulating with non-trivial size.
nitro
My partner and I are in contact constantly through the day. I have advised him to sell volatility here, minding the skew (risk reversals).
I am going long 1338.50 SPX on ES with a 4 handle stop loss.
The Goldman Sachs potential writedown is weighing over the market. QM at record levels the same.
nitro
I am going long 1338.50 SPX on ES with a 4 handle stop loss.
The Goldman Sachs potential writedown is weighing over the market. QM at record levels the same.
nitro
FED talk took the market back down, but notice the vol [as measured by the VIX] held steady. So it was knee-jerk and carries little information content imo.
SIFs are at a major support point and an attack at 1338.xx is probably in the cards. It will be an interesting to see what the denoument will be. Since the market is giving longs lots of opportunities to go long, it is likely wrong to go long intra-day. Every attack at 1338 raises the odds that it will not hold. So remove the buy stop on the third try.
Really, there are no support points below this except the double bottom at 1270 and some support at 1292, and there is no such thing as a tripple bottom, at least according to classical tech analysis. I would buy vol again on a clean break of 1338 SPX.
nitro
SIFs are at a major support point and an attack at 1338.xx is probably in the cards. It will be an interesting to see what the denoument will be. Since the market is giving longs lots of opportunities to go long, it is likely wrong to go long intra-day. Every attack at 1338 raises the odds that it will not hold. So remove the buy stop on the third try.
Really, there are no support points below this except the double bottom at 1270 and some support at 1292, and there is no such thing as a tripple bottom, at least according to classical tech analysis. I would buy vol again on a clean break of 1338 SPX.
nitro