Oil beginning to threaten SIFs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Correlation between intraday movements in QM and SIFs appear very high. It is nearly impossible to get confidence numbers with such small sample. That is where experience comes in.
Aggressive traders wacked ES again on red NQ and green QM. I would be eying QM closely. At any time, especially as the day wears on, the coupling may disappear.
"Never tell me the odds" - Hans Solo
nitro
Aggressive traders wacked ES again on red NQ and green QM. I would be eying QM closely. At any time, especially as the day wears on, the coupling may disappear.
"Never tell me the odds" - Hans Solo
nitro
Mind your seasonals. EOM is here, and some of yesterdays if not all of the midday on move was EOM institutional buying.
IRs are moving higher, and the dollar is moving higher. On the plus side for equities, oil is moving lower. SIFs as I write this are slightly plus. If you are long, I would be cautious, although you do have the wind at your back from market action and seasonals. I am standing aside, and my systems are in a tiny long position, as it should be.
1392 SPX is resistance, but less so than it was last time. Same for 1400 and 1408 and 1412 and 1417 and 1420.
nitro
IRs are moving higher, and the dollar is moving higher. On the plus side for equities, oil is moving lower. SIFs as I write this are slightly plus. If you are long, I would be cautious, although you do have the wind at your back from market action and seasonals. I am standing aside, and my systems are in a tiny long position, as it should be.
1392 SPX is resistance, but less so than it was last time. Same for 1400 and 1408 and 1412 and 1417 and 1420.
nitro
Modest gains for SIFs. A break of 1400 SPX could easily turn this into an intermediate or move level gains for SIFs (> 10 handles.)
I do see cross currents and reason to worry if long. That does not mean one should sell it, but it might mean you hedge long position more aggressively.
QM action on the oil number was the second sign I have seen of exhaustion in QM price action (the first was at $125). Imo, it is going to take a hurricane in the Gulf, or disastrous dollar move down to move oil substantially higher from here in the short to intermediate term.
nitro
I do see cross currents and reason to worry if long. That does not mean one should sell it, but it might mean you hedge long position more aggressively.
QM action on the oil number was the second sign I have seen of exhaustion in QM price action (the first was at $125). Imo, it is going to take a hurricane in the Gulf, or disastrous dollar move down to move oil substantially higher from here in the short to intermediate term.
nitro
Trading has been somewhat confused imo.
One gets the feeling that if tech were not somewhat strong today, that SPX would be well into the red. Is that a sign to short? I strongly recommend against it unless tech really weakens. The odds based on the seasonal time of the month also makes it dangerous to sell short. When it might make sense to short is the last hour of the day, if NQ weakens or ES goes red.
nitro
One gets the feeling that if tech were not somewhat strong today, that SPX would be well into the red. Is that a sign to short? I strongly recommend against it unless tech really weakens. The odds based on the seasonal time of the month also makes it dangerous to sell short. When it might make sense to short is the last hour of the day, if NQ weakens or ES goes red.
nitro
XLF gap on 3/18/08 getting close to being filled. Imo, this is the #1 technical fact dominating the consciousness of equity markets over the next few days.
However, in contradiction to what I said earlier, it won't cause a retest of the credit-bubble double bottom in SIFs. 1342.xx is my primary target to the downside in SPX.
nitro
However, in contradiction to what I said earlier, it won't cause a retest of the credit-bubble double bottom in SIFs. 1342.xx is my primary target to the downside in SPX.
nitro
If you took L 1372.xx , where do you take profits? People will tell you since your stop loss was 2, you want 3:1 so look for plus 6. I am far more flexible and look to price action to take profits. As it turns out, 1377.50 is a logical place to take profits.
But moving stop to B/E here is wise.
nitro
But moving stop to B/E here is wise.
nitro