Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Coming in on support at 1408.xx SPX. Remember, it is usually extremely bad form to buy red markets and sell green markets.

If you buy support, have a tight stop of say 1406.5, and a profit target of 1412.xx

Don't be surprised if you get run over if you don't have a stop. This could easily turn into a REALLY ugly day.

nitro
 
1408.xx SPX support. If that fails, it could be a quick trip to 1405 and 1400. If that fails, it is not far to 1392 SPX, which I would buy even on a substantial red day.

nitro
 
The action of the last two days appears to be playing off of almost entirely the price of oil.

The FED minutes will likely not tell us anything we don't already know. Imo Bernanke considers the current unemployment rate and the greater risk to the financial system far more important than inflationary pressures (which lead to price instability).

The real question imo is, at what point is the price of commodities and in particular oil, too high for the FED's comfort zone that it clearly can no longer be ignored? My guess is that is far higher than people think. Probably somewhere around $175 to $200 for oil.

If there is even a signal that the FED will start tightening, financials and brokers will have a very bad day, but it is not clear at all that it would be outside normal price action.

nitro
 
It's deja vu all over again. This time, odds slim that SIFs can survive an assault on 1408 SPX (odds probably 1:5 ). The question now is where it lands.

nitro
 
WOW!!!!

"Decision to cut IRs a close call." :eek:

FED done cutting rates barring a disaster. Market on it's own now.

Imo odds of a 1400 SPX close very strong. If it breaks below that, sell it and only buy at 1392.

nitro
 
1392 SPX in sight. Where you cover or even reverse is style. But that you have to buy 1392 ish SPX is unquestionable.

Stop loss 2 handles. Profit target 1400 SPX.

nitro
 
1392 SPX in sight. Where you cover or even reverse is style. But that you have to buy 1392 ish SPX is unquestionable.

Stop loss 2 handles. Profit target 1400 SPX. For experts only.

nitro
 
If it dips back down to 1392, you have to decide if it is a W or another breakdown.

No way to tell. If you think it is a W, you buy again (more). Otherwise you move stops to B/E. You cannot let this trade turn into a loser. Once it goes above 1397, you start trailing the Stop.

nitro
 
If you took the trade, you now have 3 handles in your pocket with a trailing stop that takes you out somewhere between 1395 and 1400.

nitro
 
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