Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

As I write this, looks like we get a close above 1420 SPX. If it does, it would change the model state.

While we don't go crazy going long now, it would definitely cause chart damage to the bears, and now rallies would have to be bought with full shares. As an aside, what are the implications for oil?

Let's see what happens...

nitro
 
A close above 1420 SPX.

Things have changed. Remember, it is not a license to go crazy long, but now rallies are bought with terminal force.

nitro
 
With NQ going green, it is very dangerous to short above 1420 SPX. The only thing going for the shorts is that the week/day is almost over, but that is a minimal advantage, imo.

nitro
 
I am seeing cross currents once again, and long is tenuous here imo.

While it is probably bad form to sell a green market, I would sell any weakness here. Stocks like VLO and ETN and other oil sensitive equities are at most risk with QM exhausted.

nitro
 
Odds just shot up 25% that we may give back all gains.

NOTE: You have to be an expert to short a green market. Do not do it otherwise.

nitro
 
SIFs in danger of giving back all gains "again". The earlier action and my view on SIFs caused me to over hedge.

Imo, this looks very toppy. Again, shorting green markets is for experts only.

If we were below 1420 SPX, I would sounding, Danger Will Robinson. Danger!

nitro
 
Quote from moo:

That was an excellent call. So, no more green. Time to go all-in on the short side?
More...
I am not sure I understand the time frame of your suggestion to go short.

Each day has it's own dynamics, and when I talk about SIFs in this manner, it is all based on models that I run for intraday trading and hedging.

I do from time to time comment on the largest time frame of days, weeks, months and years. The longer time frame is not model based, but based on simple DOW theory and some experience. Once we crossed 1420 SPX, that is the level, imo, that was needed to change the force (size) of involvement by investors to the upside, and to eliminate a downside bias for traders. Note, however, that I am far more hesitant to go short (in a directional intra day trade) against the longer time frame than I was before we broke 1420 SPX. Otherwise, I don't know what SIFs will do tomorrow until I see my model on that day.

In conclusion, a trader should be thinking the fears that investors have, and investors should be thinking the greed traders have, and vice versa. A duality that is well worth understanding if you want the wind at your back. It is also worth remembering that this is known not by what they say on TV, but what they say in price action.


nitro
 
Ok, thank you. I am trying to understand what you are saying. My time frame is from intraday to few days and weeks.
 
Some resistance 1417.xx SPX, and probably some again at 1420, but nowhere near what it use to be.

Very difficult to buy this market today, but it looks like some of the defensive names are getting flows, not unexpectedly.

Skews being shifted all over the place. Caution warranted on both sides. But odds favor a lower close from here (SPX is at 1416.xx as I write this.) There is old support at 1408.xx. Then the usual suspects but now lame 1405 and 1400. 1392 is clear and strong support.

nitro
 
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