Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

The big move down in gold took out my long and i was surprised.

It seems that inflation is not a worry any more; should just park my money in Treasury then.
 
With oil at new highs and no end in sight, SIFs are precarious and longs in SIFs should be extremely cautious now, imo.

nitro
 
SPX knocking on the 1420 door once again. With the dollar holding steady, oil backing off, institutions seem to be willing to put some money to work.

Two caveats, it is middle of month, and the buying may be cyclical. And two, FFFs are beginning to price in a tightening. I would be cautious long, unless we close above 1420 SPX, in which case you want to see it blow through the 1420 level, preferably with oil selling off as well. Aggressive traders will sell 1420 if it looks like it weakens towards EOD.

nitro
 
SIFs in extreme danger of going red today. If NQ does not recover, watch out.

I do expect both NQ and ES to finish the day decent green, but it is not a done deal. 1412 was a recent support SPX. Would not be surprised if that holds once more, with a break of that level causing lots of selling again.

nitro
 
This better hold, or it is 1405 SPX again. Odds high that it does hold. Institutions don't trade this way.

nitro
 
Oil futures knocking on new all-time highs again. This could be repositioning as a result of oil options expiration today, and oil futures contracts expiring on Tuesday of next week. In addition and because of the oil contracts coming to expiration, the next three days of trading could be slow for SIFs. What do they say about slow sleepy markets?

nitro
 
Cross currents. Obviously we don't get excited about any rally that doesn't close above 1420 SPX. But it is worse than that, imo. I see odds increasing of another sell off towards EOD unless SPX breaches 1420 and holds it.

Careful long at best.

nitro
 
damn what a mooke u are.

Quote from nitro:

IMO, oil at $72 now has a affect-the-FED delta that has to be strongly considered. Imo every dollar higher for oil from here on raises the implied rates as measured by FFFs.

If we get inflationary numbers from the jobs report, and bonds sell off, SIFs may run into a strong headwind, even into earnings.

Put QM and ZN on your screens.

nitro
More...
 
Quote from Lights:

damn what a mooke u are.
More...
I have been reading papers from Bernanke recently. Had I known then when I wrote that what I know now, I would have been far less likely to believe that the current FED has what I believed at the time to have a stronger mandate of price stability.

Once I read those papers, I believe the FED would let oil rise to $175 without raising IRs and still be within it's "aggregated mandate". Strange, but appears to be true.

I agree that statement was at best naive.

nitro
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top