The unemployment #s are unambiguous. The markets are 100% assuming a recession before the unemp number came out this morning.
Everything points to a test of 1392 SPX, 1400 SPX and sooner than later a retest of 1420 SPX. The DOW theory will turn bullish earlier on YM, as the level of interest there is about 12740 on the cash. Obviously there is a premium to big cap in scary environments.
I am not going to argue with the market non-reaction this morning, but I tell you, this is being held up by people that need to put money into the lesser of evils: Bonds you get nothing, Commodities are a lottery ticket at these levels, the stock market while in denial since SPX may lose 150 handles from here, seems to be the least overvalued. Stocks markets should be red on this number.
Imo the FED will not lower FFFs below 2% bearing anything but massive recession. The risk in interest rates from here is 85% to the upside, not downside.
To investors, tiny shares long. Don't be fooled by a likely upswing from here. The only number that matters is 1420 SPX.
nitro