Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

Amazing cross currents. NQ -13 and ES +1.50 with several key financials getting creamed. Very strange.

End of month following a strange options expiration has made for a heck of a two weeks. IMHO, once the fund buying stops, this tests 1270 again, unless the financials find a bid. This would seem to contradict my last post.

nitro
 
The only support that matters is 1295 SPX then 1270. I wouldn't buy either support with your money, let alone mine.

Investors can buy both with tiny tiny shares if your outlook is 1+ years.

nitro
 
VIX - .20 on a horrible tape, with major support lows in sight. Very very strange, but in line with the post that points out that options skews in indeces are very tight out to at least june.

I don't know what to make of this. It is all very confusing :confused:

nitro
 
Market is completely dead. Interesting that the indeces skew and VIX predicted this.

They say, don't sell a quiet market. So maybe it is best to ignore last post, even though we are at at multi day lows.

nitro
 
Minor support at 1315.xx to 1317.xx .None of this makes any difference. Markets demand a retest of 1295 SPX. It happens today, or it happens soon.

VIX a complete mystery :confused:

nitro
 
The only explanation that I can think of for the lack of VIX correlation is that this selling is the result of some pre-known event, like excess margin liquidation by hedge funds, or possibly overseas quarter end selling. That means that since it is well understood, it is likely that others are not buying protective puts in what is a known selling scenario. Another possibility is short correlation, but that seems highly unlikely to me.

If the "known-scenario" is true, and you can gauge when that ends, this market likely has only one way to go: much higher. I know I sound like a chicken with my head cut off, as one post I want short and the next I explain the reason not to. All I am doing is digesting facts as they unroll before me, and I think about them.

If I sound confused, I am.

nitro
 
Hmmmmm,

Did you see VIX on the open? It gapped up + 1.xx on a flat open. I tell you very very strange.

I am very weary of this green. Once again, ES and YM are being dragged higher by NQ. I say, proceed with caution long still, until further notice.

nitro
 
Now it is NQ that is weak, and ES is taking lead higher. Hahahaha. Too funny.

This is probably cross currents from different institutions window dressing. Look at XLE around the open, then look again. YM is going to be strange all day because MRK is getting blasted.

Who knows, but cautious long is odds on.

nitro
 
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