Oil beginning to threaten SIFs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
Interesting to see stocks like EOG + $4. The pullbacks higher in QM seem to be due to weather related events that are being played day to day, igonring the overall economic conditions.
From what I understand, we are in a La Nina cycle right now. That will give us temporary colder weather than normal. However, El Nino is poised to unleash a wrath unlike we have ever seen this summer.
Thing is, that may actually also be bullish for QM, as air conditioners will be blasting. The volatility in QM reflects this situation, imo.
That said, it is a risky trade.
nitro
From what I understand, we are in a La Nina cycle right now. That will give us temporary colder weather than normal. However, El Nino is poised to unleash a wrath unlike we have ever seen this summer.
Thing is, that may actually also be bullish for QM, as air conditioners will be blasting. The volatility in QM reflects this situation, imo.
That said, it is a risky trade.
nitro
1350 SPX is obvious resistance, with SPX sneaking it's head above it as I write this. Imo the whole range between 1270 SPX and 1420 SPX is range trading. I know that is a huge range, but that is what the chart says. 1375 SPX is the next resistance level, but even that is weak.
Buffet offering to reinsure some muni bonds, and the markets reaction (more confidence) to it, is laughable. Muni bonds don't default (the ones he is insuring), and BRK would get a nice premium to (re)insure them.
Light volume for the last few days shows that we may go back and forth for a while. Options expiration week will exaggerate moves.
Retail numbers tomorrow will very likely be dismal.
nitro
Buffet offering to reinsure some muni bonds, and the markets reaction (more confidence) to it, is laughable. Muni bonds don't default (the ones he is insuring), and BRK would get a nice premium to (re)insure them.
Light volume for the last few days shows that we may go back and forth for a while. Options expiration week will exaggerate moves.
Retail numbers tomorrow will very likely be dismal.
nitro
SIFs went higher on the retail number. To me, it looks like there is an entitie(s) that is looking for any excuse to buy, since the retail number was at best nothing to write home about.
I would not get in the way of this buying, as there are billions of dollars that need to be invested. I would not be surprised to learn that it is Japanese $$, as they are in recession and need a place to park $$ and the US is probably the least of evils.
Be careful later in day as US institutions may come in and pair some positions. But I would not sell unless we go red or if it looks like it is turning late in day.
nitro
I would not get in the way of this buying, as there are billions of dollars that need to be invested. I would not be surprised to learn that it is Japanese $$, as they are in recession and need a place to park $$ and the US is probably the least of evils.
Be careful later in day as US institutions may come in and pair some positions. But I would not sell unless we go red or if it looks like it is turning late in day.
nitro
Bernanke and Paulson speak. I have no idea what the market could possibly find in this talk, as these guys are running out of bullets.
FFFs are already saying that cuts are sending the FFs rate to 2.0. Paulson has already said the government will stimulate as needed.
Will it matter? We are going to get an education in economics and the way the market reacts the next year or so. The fact that many markets are at extremes (e.g., gold and oil and wheat) will only make this experience even more relevant. Great time to get trading experience.
nitro
FFFs are already saying that cuts are sending the FFs rate to 2.0. Paulson has already said the government will stimulate as needed.
Will it matter? We are going to get an education in economics and the way the market reacts the next year or so. The fact that many markets are at extremes (e.g., gold and oil and wheat) will only make this experience even more relevant. Great time to get trading experience.
nitro
There are several forces and counter forces today:
1) Three day weekend. Last time we had a three day weekend, people woke up to huge loses the following Tuesday. Don't underestimate psychology.
2) Terrible numbers this morning. Why SIFs are much lower is some what a mystery were it not for...
3) Options expiration is causing strange patterns. That said, the last 1 1/2 hours may be ugly.
nitro
1) Three day weekend. Last time we had a three day weekend, people woke up to huge loses the following Tuesday. Don't underestimate psychology.
2) Terrible numbers this morning. Why SIFs are much lower is some what a mystery were it not for...
3) Options expiration is causing strange patterns. That said, the last 1 1/2 hours may be ugly.
nitro