Oil beginning to threaten SIFs

.50 and .50.

All I can say is, anyone who says the FED is behind the curve now, is insane.

SIFs should rally pretty hard. 1420 SPX is where things get interesting, but every 00, 25, 50, 75 number in SPX is now a support/resistance point.

nitro
 
Wow. The late selloff was vicious. I suspect there is some fear about Fridays' unemp number and there was profit taking, but who knows...

nitro
 
Looks like the selloff was due to SP downgrading a large amount of bonds/cdos from smaller banks.

Very difficult to say, end of month is bullish, but going into an employment # friday. Probably will go red and green several times during the day ending defensive into the unemployment numbers. We'll see....

nitro
 
This market is just incredible. All I can do is shake my head in near disbelief.

These last two day selloffs in the last few minutes on these downgrades from SP are vicious, and that is a euphemism. They wacked NQ on SP downgrade, then on GOOG earnings. So it got double whammy'ed.

nitro
 
This is not a scientific statement, so it is probably not worth much.

I get the feeling that once the end of month buying by institions that are rotating out of bonds is done, that this is going to get hammered. It is just a feeling from price action, but it is backed by the charts...

nitro
 
Friends of mine in the tech industry are getting laid off. That hasn't happened in something close to five years.

There is no question in mind now, this economy is slowing down. SIFs may retest lows of 1250 SPX.

I am not sure the FED can stop it from going into a recession...We'll see.

nitro
 
It is very surprising to me how well commodities are holding up. It is almost as if they are predicting no recession. Perhaps it is an indirect dollar play.

When/If that (mis ?) perception changes, it is going to be spectacular to see QM and stocks like FCX RIG NOV HAL SLB EOG APA XOM etc get wacked.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

This is not a scientific statement, so it is probably not worth much.

I get the feeling that once the end of month buying by institions that are rotating out of bonds is done, that this is going to get hammered. It is just a feeling from price action, but it is backed by the charts...

nitro
More...
If you have been following this thread, you know that the last two days is no surprise to me.

The first six months of this year are going to be painful for longs imo. Thing is, no one knows where the bottom is. Therefore, even though this is likely to test the lows, and we are well away from them even after the last two day selloff, I would still be buying good companies with tiny tiny shares. The closer this gets to the lows (SPX 1250 - 1275), the bigger the shares should get, but still tiny.

It will be very difficult to catch the bottom, but when the FED starts raising interest rates, you know that the low is very close or it is in the rear view mirror.

nitro
 
Market waiting for oil inventories. I have no idea if a bullish number for QM is bullish or bearing for SIFs at this point. An argument can be made either way.

A slight pullback from the huge selling of the last two days is likely today.

nitro
 
A bounce is warranted imo. Not only that, most of this selling today is due to CSCO being themselves and being extremely honest about their business prospects for the next few quarters. Let me tell you, come back in ten years and you will be crying if you don't own CSCO at these prices.

Nibble long with small shares. No one knows where the low is, even though the odds are that it is somewhat lower from here.

nitro
 
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