Oil beginning to threaten SIFs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
The most important consideration to have here is to have a course of action/plan if European banks cut their interest rates. The re-action of our SIFs will be swift if it comes during our RTHs.
Otherwise, I think this market trades technically and a test of 1250 SPX seems imminent. The entire area of 1200 to 1250 is support for SPX and it won't go easy, even in a panic.
Longer term, gawd only knows where this lands, but you must be on alert for a massive down day on huge volume. Then buy everything that moves late in the day with size. Don't try this at home.
nitro
Otherwise, I think this market trades technically and a test of 1250 SPX seems imminent. The entire area of 1200 to 1250 is support for SPX and it won't go easy, even in a panic.
Longer term, gawd only knows where this lands, but you must be on alert for a massive down day on huge volume. Then buy everything that moves late in the day with size. Don't try this at home.
nitro
Oh geez, the tales this market weaves.
So let's get this straight. The locked limit down session on Monday night is due to some clown in France, that somehow has a massive position on in German futures, and no one notices. He gets caught, the bank decides to unwind this position, causing world market correlations to go to one, causing other markets then to follow suit jumping off a ledge head first?
But wait, the spin doesn't stop there. Several CEOs make a dash home from Davos because it looks like the markets in Europe may implode in panic. But wait, we are not done. Our FED, seeing what is going on, calls an emergency meeting to avert disaster, cuts the rate by a nearly unprecented .75 basis, markets still swoon, only to have a 6% swing yesterday higher, and now what happens on the 30th meeting if all this is true?
My head is spinning.
nitro
So let's get this straight. The locked limit down session on Monday night is due to some clown in France, that somehow has a massive position on in German futures, and no one notices. He gets caught, the bank decides to unwind this position, causing world market correlations to go to one, causing other markets then to follow suit jumping off a ledge head first?
But wait, the spin doesn't stop there. Several CEOs make a dash home from Davos because it looks like the markets in Europe may implode in panic. But wait, we are not done. Our FED, seeing what is going on, calls an emergency meeting to avert disaster, cuts the rate by a nearly unprecented .75 basis, markets still swoon, only to have a 6% swing yesterday higher, and now what happens on the 30th meeting if all this is true?
My head is spinning.
nitro
So you think it's a lie? If they don't cut on the 30th then what?
I have heard people say that how could this guy get away with it and there is no way, blah blah blah.
My partner ran the operations side for a major firm a few years ago. He was telling me that someone in a similar role as this french trader stole several million dollars, and that it was missed by two audits. So no, I 100% believe that he commited fraud on that scale.
As far as the 30th, your guess is as good as mine, but why guess? The FFFs are an atomic clock on the FED. All I can tell you is, I feel for Bernanke.
I think that it is far harder to take away cuts then it is to cut, i.e., how fast you go back to a neutral stance. Greenspan was far too slow, imo. That is what defines a great Fed Chairman. I think the cut was warranted when they did it. Now, I am not so sure.
nitro
I am beginning to see the effects of lower IRs, and the picture is explosive.
Several tech companies are offering me deals I can't refuse. My ex says that builders are throwing in the kitchen sink to move product. This is not comming on the back of margins, but on the back of the FED.
I don't know where the bottom is, but man the second half of this year is going to be a huge quarters for many companies.
Nibble nibbble nibble long if your horizon is anything more than a month. Beware that the charts say we go lower short term. That's why it is nibble and not buy hand over first...
nitro
Several tech companies are offering me deals I can't refuse. My ex says that builders are throwing in the kitchen sink to move product. This is not comming on the back of margins, but on the back of the FED.
I don't know where the bottom is, but man the second half of this year is going to be a huge quarters for many companies.
Nibble nibbble nibble long if your horizon is anything more than a month. Beware that the charts say we go lower short term. That's why it is nibble and not buy hand over first...
nitro
Fed day. Markets want .50, .25 imo is not out of question. Markets may sell both, but remember one thing and remember it well, it is end of quarter, and any institution that is getting deep discounts on equities is going to turn on their TWAP/VWAP buying programs. We may see down 60 handles ES, and then get a massive rally off the lows tomorrow or Friday, or possibly Monday - in other words, another one of these monster swing three consecutive days.
What should the FED do? Imo .25. Let the weak hands sell. Nibble long with tiny shares on good companies that get obliterated.
nitro
What should the FED do? Imo .25. Let the weak hands sell. Nibble long with tiny shares on good companies that get obliterated.
nitro
Sorry, end of month not end of quarter. I was on the phone with DELL and HPQ and I have end of quarter on my brain.
nitro
PS, I love HPQ hardware, and HP Unix is one of the best if not the best OS in existance for performance, but man as sales people they suck. DELL hardware is average (although getting better), but they are master salesmen. Let DELL manage HQP sales and HPQ may go to $100.
nitro
PS, I love HPQ hardware, and HP Unix is one of the best if not the best OS in existance for performance, but man as sales people they suck. DELL hardware is average (although getting better), but they are master salesmen. Let DELL manage HQP sales and HPQ may go to $100.