Oil beginning to threaten SIFs
- Thread starter nitro
- Start date
still blaming the short sellers is really ... desperate in
my eyes. the losses AIG reported did not come from
short sellers ... neither did those of any other bank.
but i certainly do understand the desperation. if you
fell you are earning, while competitors are defaulting
and you STILL get hammered like never before ...
that would be the funniest solution: everything cleaned
out. everything as it was before, just short selling is
gone for good.
my eyes. the losses AIG reported did not come from
short sellers ... neither did those of any other bank.
but i certainly do understand the desperation. if you
fell you are earning, while competitors are defaulting
and you STILL get hammered like never before ...
that would be the funniest solution: everything cleaned
out. everything as it was before, just short selling is
gone for good.
It is all about insane leverage. The math is really simple. For example, GS is leveraged 25:1. If the value of their portfolio changes adversely by more than 4%, say goodbye.
Now people realize just how good Long Term Capital must have been to be able to withstand 30:1++++ leverage for as long as they did.
nitro
Markets are wild, but they appear to be settling in a range. There is little or no leadership in cash equities, and I suspect that there is going to be serious apathy in equity markets when the realities of earnings begin to flow in.
Look, the worry here is that markets swoon and we head to levels well below 1000 SPX. I believe that if LEH were not allowed to implode, that we would have still sold off, but not in a panic. Goldman Sachs seeing it's life flash before it's eyes spooked lots of people. I don't see why that should be. Anyone that is levered 25:1 is at risk in a ten standard deviation event.
I still believe people should be making a wish list of equities they want to invest in. It may take months for markets to stabilize, but when they do you want to have a list.
nitro
Look, the worry here is that markets swoon and we head to levels well below 1000 SPX. I believe that if LEH were not allowed to implode, that we would have still sold off, but not in a panic. Goldman Sachs seeing it's life flash before it's eyes spooked lots of people. I don't see why that should be. Anyone that is levered 25:1 is at risk in a ten standard deviation event.
I still believe people should be making a wish list of equities they want to invest in. It may take months for markets to stabilize, but when they do you want to have a list.
nitro