OIL above $75 on Monday

[eugenie98]

Brent (BFO) back above $75 on Monday methinks from $73.30.

So far since the market closed on Friday: Venezuela threatened to cut oil exports to US if the US continues to threaten Venezuela (i.e. Chavez).

Then Iran rejected the terms of the nuclear agreement it was mulling over as presented to it earlier this month.

Then Rice's "peacemaking" trip was shot (or should I say bombed) to s**t on because of Qana with the Lebanese telling her to go to hell.

So we have Venezuela rhetoric, probably a 3/10 on a scale of 1-10 in terms of effect, Iran rejecting the latest nuclear proposals probably a 7/10 on a scale of 1-10 and the Qana bombing, probably a 7/10 in terms of psychological effect and 3/10 in terms of true threat to physcial supplies.

Opinions?

Update: A mitigating factor might be the 48 hour air activity halt. I guess that just means ground raids. Also Israel reserves the right to attack any target it deems threatening. Not sure what that means. After the 48 hours I think they'll hit with extreme force from the air.

 

[runningman]

At what price of Oil do oil stocks stop going up due to the hedges they must be putting on? I remember several days ago when oil spiked to $78 or so, SU and other oil cos actually fell on the day. I would assume it was because we are at or near areas where oil companies have partially or fully hedged their production.

 

[Lights]

think it's already baked in the cake. just my 2 cents..
this is all repetitive news. need something new, such as iranian oil embargo or hurricane. otherwise, rehashing same thing over past week or two.

Quote from eugenie98:

Brent (BFO) back above $75 on Monday methinks from $73.30.

So far since the market closed on Friday: Venezuela threatened to cut oil exports to US if the US continues to threaten Venezuela (i.e. Chavez).

Then Iran rejected the terms of the nuclear agreement it was mulling over as presented to it earlier this month.

Then Rice's "peacemaking" trip was shot (or should I say bombed) to s**t on because of Qana with the Lebanese telling her to go to hell.

So we have Venezuela rhetoric, probably a 3/10 on a scale of 1-10 in terms of effect, Iran rejecting the latest nuclear proposals probably a 7/10 on a scale of 1-10 and the Qana bombing, probably a 7/10 in terms of psychological effect and 3/10 in terms of true threat to physcial supplies.

Opinions?

Update: A mitigating factor might be the 48 hour air activity halt. I guess that just means ground raids. Also Israel reserves the right to attack any target it deems threatening. Not sure what that means. After the 48 hours I think they'll hit with extreme force from the air.

 

[contango]

Quote from runningman:

At what price of Oil do oil stocks stop going up due to the hedges they must be putting on? I remember several days ago when oil spiked to $78 or so, SU and other oil cos actually fell on the day. I would assume it was because we are at or near areas where oil companies have partially or fully hedged their production.

They don't necessarily stop going up. Many oil companies will hedge against an index for their long term production and then structure a linked EFP / futures / swap type trade to profit from shorter term price moves e.g. trigger the EFP monthly to lock in as much upside as possible.

 

[mschey]

Quote from eugenie98:

Brent (BFO) back above $75 on Monday methinks from $73.30.

So far since the market closed on Friday: Venezuela threatened to cut oil exports to US if the US continues to threaten Venezuela (i.e. Chavez).

Then Iran rejected the terms of the nuclear agreement it was mulling over as presented to it earlier this month.

Then Rice's "peacemaking" trip was shot (or should I say bombed) to s**t on because of Qana with the Lebanese telling her to go to hell.

So we have Venezuela rhetoric, probably a 3/10 on a scale of 1-10 in terms of effect, Iran rejecting the latest nuclear proposals probably a 7/10 on a scale of 1-10 and the Qana bombing, probably a 7/10 in terms of psychological effect and 3/10 in terms of true threat to physcial supplies.

Opinions?

Update: A mitigating factor might be the 48 hour air activity halt. I guess that just means ground raids. Also Israel reserves the right to attack any target it deems threatening. Not sure what that means. After the 48 hours I think they'll hit with extreme force from the air.

Send them all to hell...let god sort them out!

 

[eugenie98]

Oh well, I guess that last tick just answered the question

 

[eugenie98]

Sadness envelopes me as I look at my closed trade ticket at 74.50, well, guess everything wasn't baked into the cake. Then again bird in hand .....and all that other nonsense.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from runningman:

At what price of Oil do oil stocks stop going up due to the hedges they must be putting on? I remember several days ago when oil spiked to $78 or so, SU and other oil cos actually fell on the day. I would assume it was because we are at or near areas where oil companies have partially or fully hedged their production.

there is difference between owning the commodity and owning the companies.

This is a bad market for the later.