Oil $20 longer term ?

Quote from Maverick74:

My best guess is oil sees $250 before $20. Oil is an inflationary risk asset. Unless you believe that we are headed down a deflationary spiral, no way oil can get that cheap. I don't know if hyperinflation will ever become a reality, but if it does, $250 will be just the beginning.
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what he said, to the op you may want to read this, feel free to disagree. Basic premise is that there is an institutional bid to that market.

http://www.amazon.com/Oils-Endless-Bid-Unreliable-Economy/dp/0470915625
 
Thanks for the link. Haven't read it - yet.

As far as the inflationary aspect of things, agree oil would track inflation,
all other things being equal. Which is where my premise comes in,
all other things are not equal. Supply in rising, and other forms of energy are evolving. Esp. cleaner forms, which should be a bigger and bigger issue going forward.

And if Uncle Ben ain't there in a year and the presses slow down,
and, and, and - "If the creek don't rise and the ain't no meltdown,
we'll do it all over again on the big mattress" (little humor there for some
old Boston radio fans) :)

Again this isn't a tommorw trade, just a trend that could develop.

Thanks for all the counter arguments - good stuff. Keeps my tacking skills sharp sailing into the wind.
 
gas shot up to 4 .90 a gallon here in chicago when oil went to $140 ,the streets were empty,a large pecentage of the users,joe 6 pack,can't afford inflation, so if they inflate, people will just do with out,make do..joe 6 pack is starving now and with pension fails and rising unemployment, those jobs aren't coming back,oil can price itself out of use..the economic picture somehow seems to avoid mentioning joe at all costs, and he consists of the 99 that are not 1 percenters,and he is quickly being replaced by the inflow of immigrants,who are underbidding his work because it pays more than where they came from,they can price it any way they want but if their goal is to actually sell it, price will come down,i dont know what the cost is now but 2 or 3 years ago i think the cost to pull shale was around $70-$80 so any thing over that and they allow the shale producers a share of the market
 
Quote from Shooter McGavin:



Thanks for all the counter arguments - good stuff. Keeps my tacking skills sharp sailing into the wind.
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I agree, I like counter arguments, they make you think things through.
 
Quote from ammo:

gas shot up to 4 .90 a gallon here in chicago when oil went to $140 ,the streets were empty,a large pecentage of the users,joe 6 pack,can't afford inflation, so if they inflate, people will just do with out,make do..joe 6 pack is starving now and with pension fails and rising unemployment, those jobs aren't coming back,oil can price itself out of use..the economic picture somehow seems to avoid mentioning joe at all costs, and he consists of the 99 that are not 1 percenters,and he is quickly being replaced by the inflow of immigrants,who are underbidding his work because it pays more than where they came from,they can price it any way they want but if their goal is to actually sell it, price will come down,i dont know what the cost is now but 2 or 3 years ago i think the cost to pull shale was around $70-$80 so any thing over that and they allow the shale producers a share of the market
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What you are saying, is that the US is facing a long term lowering of living standards. This is indeed happening as we speak and started in 2008.

I think it's just getting started.
 
Quote from Soon2Bgreat:

Anyone active in the cobra/scorpion venom spread? Some real killer margins there:D
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Make sure you do the currency conversion for that spread.

And be careful if you have to take delivery. I learned that one the hard way.:)

But lots of opportunity!
 
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