Oil $20 longer term ?

[Shooter McGavin]

Thats what makes a market brother.

And I wouldn't go long alternatives either, was just a response
to a question as to how to play it. My easiest trade was puts on the USO

But again - not some thing you just run out an put on. But something to keep on the screen.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Quote from Churchill:

With all due disrespect, most of what you are writing does not make sense. Oil use is not dropping, only increasing. In volume and in price.

No worries.

I didn't say today, but longer term.

 

[Random.Capital]

Oil sands/shale aren't extractable at $20/bbl. That supply completely disappears long before such prices are reached.

 

[rt454]

No predictions from me, I'm more of a trend follower. I just look at prices and go from there. I was curious how you are using the information to determine what prices to go long/short.

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Couple more things to add to the minus side

Middle East

Starting to free up politicaly - granted in the short term it's a cluster you know what, but more oil should flow from Lybia, Iraq, Egypt, etc.

USA military

Uses 500,000 barrels per day (look it up) coming budget cuts, sequstration, etc. - should knock that down.

Technology advances

Both in vehicles (elec. vehicles, nat gas vehicles, even air ??)
Better refining tech.

Oil is a dinosaur, it just doesn't know it yet.

I know it's not a popular call, but neither is shorting Amazon right now (lol)

 

[rt454]

I'm a trend following type of trader so I just worry about price. Are you shorting it now? I'm just curious how you are going to use your analysis.

 

[Maverick74]

My best guess is oil sees $250 before $20. Oil is an inflationary risk asset. Unless you believe that we are headed down a deflationary spiral, no way oil can get that cheap. I don't know if hyperinflation will ever become a reality, but if it does, $250 will be just the beginning.

 

[rt454]

I'm a trend following type of trader so I just worry about price. Are you shorting it now? I'm just curious how you are going to use your analysis.

 

[nutmeg]

Your post reminded me of this article, fwiw.
---------

"Fracking to upend oil game"


"In a world where oil and gas demand is expected to rise 35 percent in the next quarter century,"

cont on link..

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinio..._means_new_middle_east_I6atCmSIyxg6PBCaebBH2L

 

[Shooter McGavin]

Quote from rt454:

I'm a trend following type of trader so I just worry about price. Are you shorting it now? I'm just curious how you are going to use your analysis.

No. Not shorting it now. World is too juiced on Monetary Easing.
Euro is the bell of the ball. (dollar down)

Just something that seems LONGER TERM can't not happen.