Oh..yeah.... right...volatility....duh
- Thread starter futurecurrents
- Start date
Thanks all for the tips
This was just the kind of day my system sits idle. No trade signals generated and I expect there will be more days like this to come. I do see something however that might be exploited in the future. It looks like the open ten minutes the Q's were fighting higher. Maybe I need to just jump into the larger trend and let it ride when it looks like that.
I have so much to code and check and dream-up right now. Luckily today I was out making money the sure way, and did not miss any trades. However I have missed many great opportunities early this year because I'm not quite ready yet. I though I would be trading by now. But now my real job is getting in the way. Also, they may call it easy language but getting it to do what I want is not easy. It would help if I knew the language. I may be very slow now but eventually I'll just be slow.
Identifying the market conditions is essentially looking at the past data. It is driving while looking at the rearview mirror. How much predictive power does the past data have? Looking at 15 min, 2 hours, 6 hours, 2 days, 1 week, etc. of recent past data and identifying the conditions. Where is the logical connection to the future (not yet existing) data if what the market has been doing recently usually does not represent what it is going to do in the next 15 min, 2 hours, 6 hours, 2 days, 1 week, etc. People spend countless hours trying to predict the future to no avail.
How can one be sure that today is going to be either a trend day or reversal day? Why not a choppy chaotic day? Or dead flat day that goes nowhere? Or any other random combination of haphazard price moves? Does this imply that there is an innate, very predictable, non-random order in the markets? I find it hard to believe because I've yet to see any evidence supporting this hypothesis.
The gambler needs action, lights, sounds, girls, drinks, and a good time.
The casino needs a positive expectancy.
Your behavior is telling us you're in the market for more than just money.
Are you a gambler?
The volatility curve on the options of anything that has options would dispute your post.
Equities have higher IVs on the put than the call side.
Commodities tend to have equal IVs on either side.
There's a reason for that. And you can construct a very useful trading system off the insight that reason gives you.
No. If conditions are not met my system won't trade. I have no problem with that. I'm just trying to find something that might work during low volatility conditions. In these lower volatility trending markets I may need to change my method for something that keeps me in the market longer and ride the trend. That's what I meant by "let it ride". I know that sounded like I just want to roll the dice, but that's not the case. I'll test any new idea first. I may just have to deal with flat returns and/or just stop the system during these times.
One big reason for me going automatic is to eliminate emotion in my trading.
Thanks. A cursory look looks good. It seems to mirror the Q but may give better signals for me. I'll have to try further testing.
Oh, "mirror" is not the right term. Mirror would mean it goes equal but opposite. What was I thinking. More like highly correlated.
Another day with no signals. Volatility on the daily q's now at lowest levels since the first half of last year. It does seem the volatility on the daily is also a good measure for the intra-day stuff. I guess this give me more time to test and refine my strats.