Offshore's Trading Journal

Quote from Kap:

"Buy or Sell Monday morning in direction of (Fridays close - x Days close). Liquidate position x Days later."

Does this mean if Market rallies lets say 3 days into expiration, then your buying on Monday and holding for three days etc..?
also what constitutes a significant previous rise? ... any end of day positve gain or a minimum ?/

cheers
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Yes, any positive change... there is no minimum.

If you have the abilitity to test, do a test on a month's time. INTERESTING RESULTS.
 
Keeping with recent patterns and probabilities, euro is rallying like crazy... :)

Probabilities suggest the opening and high (11138) being taken out by the end of the day....
 
Quote from OffShoreTrader:

I have added to our 30 year position (106-05) based on a trading range breakout on the 60 min charts.

This position has been taken on the belief the 30 year has made a short term bottom. I am trading around a core position and will look to take profits around the 108 level.

It is a defined risk setup (1-2-3 low breakout above the 20 and 50 ema). With a 20 tick stop, and a 2 point gain, this represents a 1:2 risk to reward ratio.
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Hi OffShoreTrader, very interesting journal so far. Thanks for sharing.

re the above '1-2-3 low breakout', can you describe the method? I see the 1,2 and 3 swing points on the chart, but can't decipher your setup. Thanks.

3dog
 
Quote from 3dog:



Hi OffShoreTrader, very interesting journal so far. Thanks for sharing.

re the above '1-2-3 low breakout', can you describe the method? I see the 1,2 and 3 swing points on the chart, but can't decipher your setup. Thanks.

3dog
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I trade the 1-2-3 low setup when the 20 and 50 ema act as support levels for the 1 or 3 points, or vice versa for a 1-2-3 high.

It has to be supported by further analysis. I am ASSUMING the longer term decision that bonds have bottomed and will start an uptrend thereby increasing the odds that bottoming formations will not be false.

I don't blindly buy 123 lows. Additionally, the imupulsive wave from the blackout was followed by an a-b-c pattern down which is a bullish pattern. I'll cover the Gartley 2-2-2 in later trades.

The edge really is not the 123 low but the analysis done to determine the direction of the 30 year.
 
The 20 ema is quickly moving higher while the NQ is moving lower. On the bottom of the screen you'll see the last 2 months of time reversions. This has been the longest time in terms of bar counts that the nq hasn't reverted to the 20 ema in two months. (There is one outlier in May but for the most part the market reverts by the 30th bar.)

Trading is a creative process.

I applied quant method to identify an edge in determing what the chances of follow through would be to give me direction. Identified S/R level in the market through Fib and used the time reversion count to the 20 ema to give me confidence that we are surely trading at an extreme.

I OFTEN use 1 ATR or 1.5 ATR's as intraday stops no matter what time frame I'm using.
 

Attachments

I faded the strength today at the 1295 level based on the previous analysis. I took 3/4 profits on the intraday position. I have no short edge going into tomorrow thus I closed out my remaining 1/4 position.


I remain long from the expiration play the SPS and look for a minimum of 1011-1016 highs by the end of the week.

Good luck everyone.
 
your journal is off to a very good start.

Was watching the Euro last night/this morning, you pretty much nailed it as well as the retracement today. Very nice trade. Good calls on the SP and NQ too.
 
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