Official midterm results and market implications thread.

Predicting the outcome is not the same as analyzing the polls.
If you ask me, using the national vote as a proxy shows that whether the democrats take the house or the Republicans maintain it, is inside the margin of error.


That is very different from what the media has been telling us for months.



constitutionman said:
only fools predict the market direction and I ain't one, but I can guarantee that %50 of the country will very pissed off by the end of the day tomorrow
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UsualName said:
No doubt I’d rather have Bredesan than Blackburn but the way he ran doesn’t work historically. But you never know he could get swept in with anti Trump sentiment alone.

Kansas is a crazy disaster. It’s a shame what republicans have done to that state.
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Jennifer Duffy: “One interesting phenomenon in Senate elections is that the races in the Toss Up column never break down the middle; one party wins a majority of them.”

“Going back 10 cycles to 1998, the lowest percentage of Toss Up seats one party won was in 2002 when Republicans won 67 percent (6 of 9 races). In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party took 89 percent of the contests in Toss Up. In 2004, Republicans won 8 of 9 races, but in 2006, Democrats took 8 of 9 races. In 2014, Republicans won 8 of 9 contests. That there were nine races in Toss Up in all three years and there are nine this year is purely a coincidence.”
 
That is interesting... I wonder if that is random or it is being driven by something real.... Such as many of the the polls using the templates of the most recent presidential election instead of the previous off year election or poor modeling regarding independents.

exGOPer said:
Jennifer Duffy: “One interesting phenomenon in Senate elections is that the races in the Toss Up column never break down the middle; one party wins a majority of them.”

“Going back 10 cycles to 1998, the lowest percentage of Toss Up seats one party won was in 2002 when Republicans won 67 percent (6 of 9 races). In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party took 89 percent of the contests in Toss Up. In 2004, Republicans won 8 of 9 races, but in 2006, Democrats took 8 of 9 races. In 2014, Republicans won 8 of 9 contests. That there were nine races in Toss Up in all three years and there are nine this year is purely a coincidence.”
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UsualName said:
Two races to watch: Georgia Governor and Texas Senator.

Georgia because Abrams went with th strategy base democrats have been advocating:!dont run as a moderate in the south, run as a liberal and build a coalition similar to Obama’s. We’ll see.

Texas simply because how close can democrats get to making the republicans have to defend in presidential elections.

Also, forget the polling almost all of it is underestimating turnout and that could cut into what the media is hyping about a so-called blue wave or it can turn out to be a blue tsunami. No matter what republicans are on defense.
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Pubs have been on D since they beat the piss out of the Libs 2 years ago.
And the Libs haven’t stopped crying. It’s been fun.
 
It should not take long to find out the results. This evening should be very interesting. The only thing everyone agrees on is the Republicans will win the Senate. Democrats say they will win the House, Republicans say they will hold it. I think the Republicans will manage to hold on to it. Extreme liberals like Ocasio-Cortez will lose! They have been losing before this midterm elections. I believe majority of Americans still hate socialism, communism and islamism! And most Americans, contrary to media accounts support securing our borders, getting fair trade deals, creating jobs, cutting their taxes, putting Americans first! That is why President Trump's approval rating keeps going up!
 
If the Gop holds on this will be the mantra. (see below)
They will roll out the race card.

No mention of the fact a majority of Hispanic Americans are against illegal immigration.

The reality to me was that the Kavanaugh inquisition did far more to fire up the base. Particularly suburban women.

Pollster: GOP Base ‘Coming Home’ Because Trump Nationalized Illegal Immigration Issue

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...trump-nationalized-illegal-immigration-issue/

Trump’s focus on immigration has given Republicans a fighting chance to retain control of Congress. Hart told CNBC that the polling right before the midterms “is a political kaleidoscope.”

“You turn the poll one way, and it looks [good for Democrats],” Hart reportedly told CNBC, adding that “you can see how the GOP squeaks through” if you turn it the other way.

 
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