Official midterm results and market implications thread.

UsualName said:
Two races to watch: Georgia Governor and Texas Senator.

Georgia because Abrams went with th strategy base democrats have been advocating:!dont run as a moderate in the south, run as a liberal and build a coalition similar to Obama’s. We’ll see.

Texas simply because how close can democrats get to making the republicans have to defend in presidential elections.

Also, forget the polling almost all of it is underestimating turnout and that could cut into what the media is hyping about a so-called blue wave or it can turn out to be a blue tsunami. No matter what republicans are on defense.
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Tennessee is more important than Texas in terms of Senate control, if Dems win there, they win all the other close races.
 
exGOPer said:
Tennessee is more important than Texas in terms of Senate control, if Dems win there, they win all the other close races.
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Dems getting the senate is a very high bar because this is a traditionally republican year in terms of the map.

I don’t have much hope in Tennessee because the dem candidate is basically a Republican.
 
UsualName said:
Dems getting the senate is a very high bar because this is a traditionally republican year in terms of the map.

I don’t have much hope in Tennessee because the dem candidate is basically a Republican.
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A Manchin Dem is still a Dem, they vote strategically.

Final Poll results in Kansas have 2 (of 4) house seats and the governorship leaning Dem.

Senate hopes are not over yet, small chance but possible.
 
exGOPer said:
A Manchin Dem is still a Dem, they vote strategically.

Final Poll results in Kansas have 2 (of 4) house seats and the governorship leaning Dem.

Senate hopes are not over yet, small chance but possible.
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No doubt I’d rather have Bredesan than Blackburn but the way he ran doesn’t work historically. But you never know he could get swept in with anti Trump sentiment alone.

Kansas is a crazy disaster. It’s a shame what republicans have done to that state.
 
I am here to tell you that its going to tell you that per the polls and 538 its going to be very close.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1202a2The2018Midterms.pdf

The abc poll on Nov. 1. said Dems led by 8. Their sample of registered voters was

33-27-34 percent among registered voters, Democrats-Republicans-independents.


538 blog... states...
That Democrats are favored to win a majority of seats if they win the popular vote by at least 7.2 points.

The final politico poll has the dems at 43 to Republicans 40 with 18 percent undecided.
And if I were a democrat I know that the majority of that 18 percent just does not want to say Republican in public.


So when you couple the most recent polls with 538's info the race in the margins for house control.


It truly will be all about turnout. Will one side outperform the poll models?



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#lite
 
TJustice said:
I am here to tell you that its going to tell you that per the polls and 538 its going to be very close.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1202a2The2018Midterms.pdf

The abc poll on Nov. 1. said Dems led by 8. Their sample of registered voters was

33-27-34 percent among registered voters, Democrats-Republicans-independents.


538 blog... states...
That Democrats are favored to win a majority of seats if they win the popular vote by at least 7.2 points.

The final politico poll has the dems at 43 to Republicans 40 with 18 percent undecided.
And if I were a democrat I know that the majority of that 18 percent just does not want to say Republican in public.


So when you couple the most recent polls with 538's info the race in the margins for house control.


It truly will be all about turnout. Will one side outperform the poll models?



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#lite
More...

Sherrod Brown is walking around +9 in Ohio according to the polls. If he breaks 10 in the swingiest of swing states, hold on to your hats.
 
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