Official GOOG prediction poll

[Hydroblunt]

Quote from damir00:

except saudis don't have anything remotely resembling a monopoly on oil. the best possible long-term event for humanity would be for oil to hold up above $35 for the next while, because it will bring reserves like you wouldn't believe into production. potential canadian reserves alone are 10x saudi reserves.

could you imagine a world where the mid-east becomes irrelevant because their pricing power has been permanently broken?

Absolutely right. Even though I usually disagree with damir, he knows what he is talking about.

Saudis are not rich. The saudi royal family and some close relatives & friends are rich while 90% of the country is in poverty. Standard results of first world mercantilism tactics. A country is rich when its population takes advantage of its valueable resources, not a puppet corrupt government.

OPEC has been losing its monopoly for years. Between Russia and Iraq, their grip on oil is gone. Once reserves start being used, OPEC will simply fall apart.

 

[damir00]

50 years from now history will look back at the saud family as running the most useless society this planet has ever seen. more wealth in less time than has ever been seen before - and all of it completely squandered. when all is said and done, they will have absolutely nothing to show for it.

 

[SlyFlo]

Quote from damir00:

50 years from now history will look back at the saud family as running the most useless society this planet has ever seen. more wealth in less time than has ever been seen before - and all of it completely squandered. when all is said and done, they will have absolutely nothing to show for it.

I can only hope you're right about this one. Unfortunately, I'll be very very old in 50 yrs, IF i'm around at all...so by then, I can hope this damn world will be better for my kids!!

 

[GGSAE]

Quote from taodr:

Canadians cannot afford a decent POST OFFICE never mind putting money to develope the tar sands. Mind you there is talk of Alberta being the first province to really separate and they would join the US in no time.

What the hell are you talking about?

Maybe you should call up another anaylst and ask about Alberta's increasing budget surpluses and the continual removal and lowering of taxes in all facets of life....

Alberta joining the states - ummm wow.

 

[praetorian2]

Checking in from the pool.....


I got a few questions, let me hit em fast.

Samson77-- You don't learn what I do. Only way is trial and error, lots of error. Who knows if this isn't an error to begin with. Just play the averages and hope to get it right more often than not.

SAMMYSOEsa- That's always a concern. I'm more worried about being like 170% net long with the GOOG on the books and a few other longs, so I just took home some shorts to hedge it. I'm much more concerned about a downside move in the whole market. I was already short some SPY and I'm just adding to it. Did the QQQ b/c it's nas and will be more moving with GOOG. Also did SMH b/c the whole market was up for 2nd day in a row and the SOX couldn't make it happen again. There's weakness in there. Given the 40 sp pt move higher this week, I'd say it's a good time to get some short exposure, not a lot, but maybe half of what you want. That way you can just double and tripple at 1110 and 1115-1120 or something. Just use your own scales and play the ranges.

Nordic- Sure is a ton of metal. At 170 on the HUI it made a ton of sense, down here it makes a bit less sense, even if I think the HUI is going to 1000. HUI probably sees 195 before it sees 220, or that's how I'm plaint it. That's why I have such a large NEM short on. I'll at least make 50k on that to scalp against whatever much larger number I loose on my overall HUI long. But at least it works for taxes b/c I don't have to book any HUI gains. That's why I generally try to avoid trading around positions and instead just hedge with something else.

Damir- Thanx, but I've been saying that since I sold my oils back when oil was at 35. I've been wrong for a dozen pts, but just have had no position besides some small airline action that I got into earlier this week. Only thing I own is a few of the oil tankers. My fave is still SFL, but my cost basis is like 13.5 and I wouldn't be buying up here. My other tanker positions I got into in early aug after selling it all much higher, but these positions are small, 1500-3500 shares, not kidding.

 

[damir00]

Quote from praetorian2:

but I've been saying that since I sold my oils back when oil was at 35. I've been wrong for a dozen pts...

oil and bonds have been terrific short-kiillers, that's for sure. i've been hitting crude via OSX, starting six weeks ago with a wrangle centered @95 and since then adding/dumping bearish verticals as it bounces around the 105/110 area. latest was a bear call spread added midday friday, which with any luck will close out monday.

so far it's worked out ok, but who the hell knows what next week brings. and i was lucky - didn't even pay attention to oil 'til it was over $40 - so i missed being early (so far!) due to nothing but my short attention span, lol.

 

[dividend]

Quote from praetorian2:

Checking in from the pool.....


I got a few questions, let me hit em fast.

Samson77-- You don't learn what I do. Only way is trial and error, lots of error. Who knows if this isn't an error to begin with. Just play the averages and hope to get it right more often than not.

SAMMYSOEsa- That's always a concern. I'm more worried about being like 170% net long with the GOOG on the books and a few other longs, so I just took home some shorts to hedge it. I'm much more concerned about a downside move in the whole market. I was already short some SPY and I'm just adding to it. Did the QQQ b/c it's nas and will be more moving with GOOG. Also did SMH b/c the whole market was up for 2nd day in a row and the SOX couldn't make it happen again. There's weakness in there. Given the 40 sp pt move higher this week, I'd say it's a good time to get some short exposure, not a lot, but maybe half of what you want. That way you can just double and tripple at 1110 and 1115-1120 or something. Just use your own scales and play the ranges.

Nordic- Sure is a ton of metal. At 170 on the HUI it made a ton of sense, down here it makes a bit less sense, even if I think the HUI is going to 1000. HUI probably sees 195 before it sees 220, or that's how I'm plaint it. That's why I have such a large NEM short on. I'll at least make 50k on that to scalp against whatever much larger number I loose on my overall HUI long. But at least it works for taxes b/c I don't have to book any HUI gains. That's why I generally try to avoid trading around positions and instead just hedge with something else.

Damir- Thanx, but I've been saying that since I sold my oils back when oil was at 35. I've been wrong for a dozen pts, but just have had no position besides some small airline action that I got into earlier this week. Only thing I own is a few of the oil tankers. My fave is still SFL, but my cost basis is like 13.5 and I wouldn't be buying up here. My other tanker positions I got into in early aug after selling it all much higher, but these positions are small, 1500-3500 shares, not kidding.

im just curious, but how many positions do you hold at one time?? hahah.... it seems like you have dozens of baskets

 

[HLB]

so it will run for now...

 

[praetorian2]

Quote from dividend:

im just curious, but how many positions do you hold at one time?? hahah.... it seems like you have dozens of baskets

I have a lot of positions. Most are hedges of hedges of hedges... lol.

Really have only a few ideas. Tankers, gold,silver, copper, uranium, some microcaps. That's about it really.

 

[praetorian2]

Quote from dividend:

im just curious, but how many positions do you hold at one time?? hahah.... it seems like you have dozens of baskets

I have a lot of positions. Most are hedges of hedges of hedges... lol.

Really have only a few ideas. Tankers, gold,silver, copper, uranium, some microcaps. That's about it really.