% of winning trading using TA

TA doesn’t predict, neither is TA a Trading System (TS)

If Technic ~ Gk: tekhne = art and Analyze = examine, then TA is
the art of examining PriceTime Movement (PTM)

PTM is irregular
Subjective TA is the ‘only’ form of TA that will yield positive results
‘only’ empirical methods are useful

PTM = Change
the intention of the ‘best’ TA is to successfully anticipate Change
a TS is designed to take advantage of Change
the TS uses B/S entries/exits based on the user’s PTM TA

“. . . what is the % of winning trading that one who uses TA has ? ”

how long is a piece of string ?
 
Quote from walterjennings:

the whole idea of position sizing seems a bit flawed to me. ignoring the idea of scaling in or out. if a TA gives you the size of the position that should be originally taken, that could be considered a confidence indicator. rather than having the position size proportional to the confidence indictor, intuitively there would be a cutoff point which maximizes expected profit using 100% capital each position? I haven't bothered doing the math for this but my gut feeling is that the position sizing doesn't cause the trader to gain anything in the long run. does anyone have any good arguments why position sizing works?
More...
http://www.reference.com/browse/wiki/Truthiness :D

It's easy to determine whether position sizing works or not, unless one is just too lazy to search the Net.
 
Quote from Wallace:

TA doesn’t predict
More...

The old "should we predict" argument in another guise.

predict
v 1: make a prediction about; tell in advance; "Call the outcome of an election"

If one believes that the prediction is absolute then TA doesn't predict.

If one believes that the prediction is statistical then TA does predict.

ie, if Y happened in the past after X with a probability of ZZ% then, with a certain confidence, there is a probability AA that it will repeat in the future (until the markets change in such a way that the statistics change).

Because of the second definition most of us who make our living in the markets are willing to enter or exit a trade. Nice post by the way, Whitster.
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

The old "should we predict" argument in another guise.

predict
v 1: make a prediction about; tell in advance; "Call the outcome of an election"

If one believes that the prediction is absolute then TA doesn't predict.

If one believes that the prediction is statistical then TA does predict.

ie, if Y happened in the past after X with a probability of ZZ% then, with a certain confidence, there is a probability AA that it will repeat in the future (until the markets change in such a way that the statistics change).

Because of the second definition most of us who make our living in the markets are willing to enter or exit a trade. Nice post by the way, Whitster.
More...


i am surprised to hear this from you, kiwi.

what is the probability of a move in the same direction after X moves in that direction?

Can TA be used in a subjective manner---yes.

Is TA statistically relevant and testable--- no.

imho

regards, surf
 
Quote from atozcom:

TA is all up to interpretation of the individual trader. TA cannot be proven mathematically to be better than 50%. It TA win better than 50%, you would have an edge, all the big money investment firms would hire programmers to do it with computers. You got 50% with coin toss.

The TA information is open to everyone. There is no secret, no edge. [/B]
More...

Are you sure that the big firms and hedge funds don't use TA? It's possible that they do, and (obviously) don't want to tell anybody.
 
At the end of the day, one sees what one wants to see. If you want to prove TA doesn't work, you can with statistics. If you want to prove it can, likewise.

-empee
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top