Quote from adamm2:
You might try channeling your displaced anger energy on something more productive.
Calling me stubborn is pretty pointless. I have already admitted that I know there are flaws in the back tests and I know that in order to get fills you have to have the price go through the limit.
Using your advice with market orders changed the profit factor by 0.1, not to mention the problem with the orders going in at exact h/l of the bar. Clearly if I notice the strategy isn't profitable, I would abort it.
If anyone has an account with tradestation and has the ability to test this strategy on multiple years of data and post the results I would appreciate it. Obviously you get my code in return.
I'm glad you're making the changes and its too bad you view my posts as displaced anger (they're not BTW). Your comments about "Its just money anyway" are IMO misguided as there are a lot of people out there who are looking for just a few hundred bucks to start a business, hence the kiva comment.
There's a ton of literature on proper backtesting methods and what I've mentioned thus far is all fairly well known information and it only scratches the surface of potential pitfalls.
There are still a few glaring red-flags in your backtest (even with the small sample size)...
That said, why not just sign up for TradeStation instead of giving away your hard work? (I use the platform BTW). The TS forums are a great resource; there are some very good threads devoted to topics such as this and it would be well worth your time (in fact I would say its manditory) to read those forums.
Your statement about the profit factor doesn't make any sense.
You have a $300/per trade average profit at 10 contracts per trade. So, we are looking at a $30/contract avg profit. Suppose you include commissions in that number already. Okay, now we get $6.25/per side slippage (a low estimate, your last backtest only inlcude slippages for one side), and you're down to $23.75/per contract per trade avg profit. Say you have some bad slippage at 12.50 per side (only one full tick), now you're down to $17.50 / per trade per contract. This is not a tradeable ES system. You're going to run into missed trades, bad fills, broker down time etc etc that will eat that $17-$23 /per trade profit down to 0 and even negative.
For you to say your profit factor went down by only 0.1 means you missed something critical somewhere...
A good figure to go by is $50/per trade per contract and even that's pushing it. I would say $80 per trade per contract is the cutoff after all slippage ($12.50/per side) and commissions.
Mike