ODDSMAKER: Romney Will Win In A Landslide
- Thread starter pspr
- Start date
That video was posted on youtube in June,I wonder if he still feels the same today
I bet pspr was unaware of that,he is usually behind
A study by two University of Colorado professors released last month predicts that President Obama will win just 218 Electoral College votes in November, far short of the 270 that he needs for reelection. Said political science professor Kenneth Bickers: âBased on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble.â
Co-author Michael Berry added,
For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner.
The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If itâs the former, the president may receive credit for the economyâs trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.
The model looks at a number of elements, the most important of which are unemployment numbers and personal disposable income. According to the authors, voters hold Democrats more responsible for high unemployment rates while they hold Republicans more responsible for lower spendable incomes. Specifically, said Berry:
The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate [while] holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent â¦
The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama ⦠is not great enough to offset [the] high rates of unemployment â¦
Their analysis also looks at each individual state and arrives at another conclusion which impacts the Electoral College vote: Obama will lose almost all of the âswingâ states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, according to Bickers.
As always there are caveats: The economic data the professors used in their study was from June, and an update of their model coming in September might change their conclusions. And some of the âswingâ states that are barely favoring Romney at present could also change in their updated report.
This presidential prediction mirrors that of Wayne Allyn Root, who reiterated his prediction in June that Romney would beat Obama in November by a landslide.
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...predict-romney-win-intrade-foresees-obama-win
Co-author Michael Berry added,
For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner.
The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If itâs the former, the president may receive credit for the economyâs trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.
The model looks at a number of elements, the most important of which are unemployment numbers and personal disposable income. According to the authors, voters hold Democrats more responsible for high unemployment rates while they hold Republicans more responsible for lower spendable incomes. Specifically, said Berry:
The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate [while] holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent â¦
The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama ⦠is not great enough to offset [the] high rates of unemployment â¦
Their analysis also looks at each individual state and arrives at another conclusion which impacts the Electoral College vote: Obama will lose almost all of the âswingâ states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida, according to Bickers.
As always there are caveats: The economic data the professors used in their study was from June, and an update of their model coming in September might change their conclusions. And some of the âswingâ states that are barely favoring Romney at present could also change in their updated report.
This presidential prediction mirrors that of Wayne Allyn Root, who reiterated his prediction in June that Romney would beat Obama in November by a landslide.
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...predict-romney-win-intrade-foresees-obama-win
I think Obama will win or maybe it's just I'm wanting him to win. But I wouldn't bet any money either way on this election, seems to close to call. I'm guessing a low turnout, the Obama nation isn't as excited as 4 years ago and it's a yawner for the those in the middle too. It'll be a fight between the hard core right and hard core left with a few independents in swing states making the final decision.
Did they actually call those elections before the elections took place or was it a biased study curve fitted to predict a Romney win ?