No chance US shale producers or supermajors (Exxon, Chevron) voluntarily partake in any production cuts. This only happens if the Texas RRC enforces it on in-state shale entities. Big oil won't be obligated to cut, and are totally against it.
Where's the 10 to 15 million going to come from? At most Saudis and Russians will cut 2M between themsleves, and then they're insisting US companies shoulder some of the burden, which would be a logistical nightmare.They'll be lucky to get the other 8M bbl/d from other OPEC+ members and countries like Norway and Brazil, especially if the US is not on board.
We've rallied so much that anything less than at least a collective 10M bpd cut will be a huge disappointment, thanks to Trump setting expectations so high. So this virtual OPEC+ meeting on Monday is destined to fail miserably, with a likely disappointing outcome. And no matter how much they agree to cut, it won't be enough to offset the unprecedented demand destruction and relentless storage buildup we are witnessing. I would fade any knee-jerk algo-driven rally...and look to retest the lows sometime this month.
Where's the 10 to 15 million going to come from? At most Saudis and Russians will cut 2M between themsleves, and then they're insisting US companies shoulder some of the burden, which would be a logistical nightmare.They'll be lucky to get the other 8M bbl/d from other OPEC+ members and countries like Norway and Brazil, especially if the US is not on board.
We've rallied so much that anything less than at least a collective 10M bpd cut will be a huge disappointment, thanks to Trump setting expectations so high. So this virtual OPEC+ meeting on Monday is destined to fail miserably, with a likely disappointing outcome. And no matter how much they agree to cut, it won't be enough to offset the unprecedented demand destruction and relentless storage buildup we are witnessing. I would fade any knee-jerk algo-driven rally...and look to retest the lows sometime this month.
