Odds of aluminum & steel tariffs passing?

We are on the losing side of almost all trade deals. Our friends and enemies have taken advantage of the U.S. for many years. Our Steel and Aluminum industries are dead. Sorry, it’s time for a change! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!


Was hoping he'd back peddle by Monday morning. Expect a bearish week start
 
The Tariffs will go loudly into effect. All the nations that might retaliate will quietly receive an exemption. The net effect of the Tariffs will be economically zero. Announcement of the Tariffs will, however, energize Trump's low information voters. That will be their main effect. This is another Trump political stunt. Trump is the Barnum and Bailey of Politics. The market will recover nicely in time for the midterm election.
 

President Trump and His Personal Trade Deficit

Mar 5, 2018

http://anindependentmind.com/2018/03/05/president-trump-personal-trade-deficit/

There are 327 million Americans and only 140,000 steel workers. Who benefits from tariffs on steel imports and who suffers?

There is a huge downside to protectionism. If imported steel costs 25% more as a result of Trump’s proposed tariff, then, all things being equal, consumer products will ultimately cost more. Because of that, consumers will have less to spend on other goods, and the economy will slow down. Even worse, if we impose tariffs on imported steel it is likely that other steel producing countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports to their country. This will slow exports which is a significant 12% of GDP and accounts for almost 11 million U.S. jobs. These are the kinds of things that cause economic decline. Even worse, Trump’s misguided policies could start a trade war which was one of the major causes of the Great Depression.
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piezoe said:
The Tariffs will go loudly into effect. All the nations that might retaliate will quietly receive an exemption. The net effect of the Tariffs will be economically zero. Announcement of the Tariffs will, however, energize Trump's low information voters. That will be their main effect. This is another Trump political stunt. Trump is the Barnum and Bailey of Politics. The market will recover nicely in time for the midterm election.
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That's effectively what's happening with the solar panel tariffs. They tariffs are prohibited under a bunch of trade agreements the U.S. has with a bunch of countries, so of course they're all filing for arbitration under those agreements and of course they'll all win. In the end all it takes is for Canada and/or Mexico to win and it's a moot point, everyone just funnels their stuff through them at minor inconvenience, and we're back to the status quo. So as you said, minor effect that's quickly overcome and the morons all cheer MAGA.
 
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