Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

re the preceding posting from MKTrader--
those are the kind of stats i just love. Thanks for sharing that with us MK.
A word of caution though--calendar biases have to be handled with especial care. They hold real potential for abuse. Consider the luminaries that have their computers search through every possible holding pattern of the year--long on Jan second, exit on third, long on the second out on the fourth--all the way through the end of the year. then flip it all around to the short side. They inevitably have many 80-90 or 100 percent examples to offer just through the sheer volume of trials, and offer they do. They don't tell you that such deviations from the mean are normal though, and that they don't portend anything exciting for the future.
There are plausible fundamental reasons on why people bid the stock market up in late December, however, and as MK observes, year after year, it seems to play out according to Hoyle. I have been following it in real time for over a decade now.
 
Thanks, Art.

I agree, you could data mine for all sorts of calendar systems and some would be statistical flukes. I only consider those with a fundamental basis--things like turn-of-the-month, Santa rallies, etc.

A related strategy, which has a very solid track record, and a similar fundamental rationale, is buying stocks a couple of days before Thanksgiving and holding until the first few days into the next year. Here's an article on it

http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/article.asp?id=18526



Quote from Art Collins:

re the preceding posting from MKTrader--
those are the kind of stats i just love. Thanks for sharing that with us MK.
A word of caution though--calendar biases have to be handled with especial care. They hold real potential for abuse. Consider the luminaries that have their computers search through every possible holding pattern of the year--long on Jan second, exit on third, long on the second out on the fourth--all the way through the end of the year. then flip it all around to the short side. They inevitably have many 80-90 or 100 percent examples to offer just through the sheer volume of trials, and offer they do. They don't tell you that such deviations from the mean are normal though, and that they don't portend anything exciting for the future.
There are plausible fundamental reasons on why people bid the stock market up in late December, however, and as MK observes, year after year, it seems to play out according to Hoyle. I have been following it in real time for over a decade now.
More...
 
Art's futures biases for Dec 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Friday, there is a unanimous short side bias in the continental currencies.
 

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