Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for June 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The indices definitely appear to be rolling over. All three are urging uncontested sells for Wednesday.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The near-term setup in the indices is for continued down action. We are in the second of the traditionally most bearish six months of the year. We are also flipping from the long to the short side of the days-of-month timeframe. There figures to be some disappointed fund players within the next couple weeks.
Thursday is probably not going to conform, however. Aside from the fact you rarely get continued down action after a significant down day--and we've had two in a row no less--the non-calendar Czar signals are bullish. We should patiently sit out a day in that complex and wait for a better setup..
The only signal close to being definitive is an uncontested short reading in the currencies, particularly the euro and Swiss franc.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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We're starting to get the kind of ugliness in the stock market we haven't seen in a while, and there may be a temptation to jump aboard the short side and hang on. I have to say, though, that even if I allowed myself to go with a gut inclination, it would probably be on the buy rather than sell side. I would be especially wary of selling if the market again opens lower. The odds favor such an event signaling a short term capitulation before a rally if history is any guide. Granted, the past tends to be a mere approximation of the future at best.
Sticking to the nuts and bolts of what is advocated on this site: the bond complex is flashing across-the-board uncontested buy signals.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 11.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Despite a lone dissenting vote in the less-frequent indicator box, the index CzarCharts are urging sells across the board.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.


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Although the Russell traded higher off it's opening on Monday, it tipped it's hand somewhat that it was the weak link of the complex. On Tuesday, I expect that tendency to intensify. All of the indices are in net sell mode, but you'll note that the Russell is especially conforming across all signal categories.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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If you view each of the three major signal boxes in the indexes separately but of equal weight, the majority direction in the Russell is to the downside. In the Nasdaq, two of the boxes are bearish and one is neutral. The best play for Thursday is to sell the S&Ps according to a unanimous reading in all three major categories.
 

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Art's futures biases for June 15.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts continue to insist across the index complex that a reversal is imminent. For Friday, the Nasdaq and Russell are equally strong short side candidates.
 

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I do not understand whether with these types of published calls/scenarios then you are going to trade the contrary...maybe you are able to use your simple biases as a contrarian indicator for you own trading and...making money... :eek:

I'm still waiting for a reply to my observation and question at page 30. Thank you.
 
Quote from Bernard111:

I do not understand whether with these types of published calls/scenarios then you are going to trade the contrary...maybe you are able to use your simple biases as a contrarian indicator for you own trading and...making money... :eek:

I'm still waiting for a reply to my observation and question at page 30. Thank you.
More...

Bernard:

In his second post of this thread Art said:

Going into 2007, you’ll notice I am not altering anything in the Czarcharts even though I do re-examine at the end of each year. I see no reason to suspect the climate is going to radically shift into the next year.

I'd say Art does not analyze every day. His numbers are based on long-term results. Indeed I think if you read through this thread and the 2006 thread you'll find he doesn't really get concerned with his signals for any one day being very wrong,

Also page numbers when referring to previous posts mean little. It depends on your font size and setup. This page is in page 6 for my setup so I'm guessing at your question.

Jack
 
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