Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for May 4.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts are urging uncontested buys in both the bond and currency complexes for Friday.
 

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Art's futures biases for May 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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ANNOUNCEMENT:


From now on, the CzarChart projections will be derived from continuous charts rather than actual monthly ones. Most of the time, the two approaches yield the same results, but not always. The problem is, the actual monthlies have examples of nominal prices. These occur when you go far enough back to where the month you’re using was not an active month at the time of the earliest data. Since the CzarCharts reference data fields as large as 50 days, this does make an occasional difference.

The upside to monthlies is that you can automate them, but how necessary is that considering the projections merely pinpoint entries on the open, exits on the close? I wanted to accommodate this feature back when I was convinced the differences were insignificant. Unfortunately, there are some discrepancies that go beyond the insignificant. We should be trading according to the exact roadmap I’ve devised in research, and that was all done in continuous bars. Therefore—time to just fess up to a tactical error and move forward. (Something we can maybe learn from governments—oh, maybe not). Besides—less work for me (and maybe you) every quarterly rollover.

For Monday, note that the indexes are getting predominantly bearish off of a couple days of dead-neutral. As I’ve been saying, Tuesday represents the calendar perfect storm of sorts, when the day-of-month flips from long to short, thereby joining the month-of-year indicators. Maybe that will be D-day (as in “down”), or maybe it will come a bit early or late. I’m reasonably sure it’s pretty imminent.
 

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Quote from Art Collins:

ANNOUNCEMENT:


From now on, the CzarChart projections will be derived from continuous charts rather than actual monthly ones. [/B]
More...
Art:

Great news, that might explain some discrepancies I attributed to errors on my part when I tried to duplicate your signals.

To forestall a slew of complaints, nasty comments, etc, rather than the kudos you deserve - Please advise what type of continuous contract you will be using e.g., - what type of rollover trigger, back-adjusting method, etc.

If you use one of the EOD vendors like CSI or Pinnacle perhaps give us their setup.

Jack
 
jackr wrote
Art:

Great news, that might explain some discrepancies I attributed to errors on my part when I tried to duplicate your signals.

To forestall a slew of complaints, nasty comments, etc, rather than the kudos you deserve - Please advise what type of continuous contract you will be using e.g., - what type of rollover trigger, back-adjusting method, etc.

If you use one of the EOD vendors like CSI or Pinnacle perhaps give us their setup.

Jack
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Well thanks Jack. I consider this minor--I bring it up only because I try to disclose everything and besides, some people follow me in their own work. I've followed both alternatives in all my trading--disclosed and otherwise-- and i've never had the experience of "wow, no wonder i was losing, i should have been using continuous rather than monthly (or vice versa)." you can satisfy yourself be going back a pace in each respective one and noting how the open-high-low-close ratios remain consistent. Again, it's just that occasional weird non-active month activity 20-50 bars back in the monthlies that sometimes don't exactly track a continous active data stream.
I'm using Trade Station continuous, and that's about all I know about it. It does seem to have immediate active contract changeover awareness--I've never caught it being so much as a day early or late for matching the exchange rollovers.
thanks for your feedback
 
Art's futures biases for May 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For days, I've been looking toward May 8th as a potential confluence of sell indicators based on the foreseeable calendar turning points. Monday's close has turned potential into actuality. We have bonafied sell signals, particularly in the S&Ps which are posting net sells in all three major category boxes.
Longer term, the a turning tide in favor of the bears may be at hand. There is validity to the "sell in May and go away" axiom. This year, that tendency may be nicely coupled with a significant overbought situation.
 

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Art's futures biases for May 9.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Those dag-nabbed scampy little bulls--they just don't quit, do they?

Learning to be a trading advisor--KNOW YOUR "OTHER HAND."

1. The S&P signals are still solidly bearish.
2. But we get some contradiction elsewhere, particularly in the Nasdaq.
3. Overall, I'm still bearish and expect to see a significant drop any day now
4. But on the other hand, I advocate strict system following, and the current one day Czar readings in the indexes do not advocate "plunging."
5. But on the still other hand, nothing is to say you can't follow the S&Ps as a separate signal. At the end of last year, I demonstrated the positive expectancy of following each market, just on the either-or indicators.
6. But on the other hand, we might not want to get cute while the Fed is meeting.
7. Although the former does present occasional positive opportunity, volatility-wise.
8. I guess when all is said and done, I'd suggest living to fight another day in the indexes. And unfortunately, there isn't anything more definitive in the other complexes.
 

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Art's futures biases for May 10.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Ok Bullwinkle, maybe this time for sure?

Unlike Tuesday's readings, the unanimous sell signals in the S&Ps are being supported rather than contradicted by the related markets. In short, all the indexes present a reasonable selling opportunity for Wednesday, with the spoos being especially bearish.
 

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Art's futures biases for May 11.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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I'm the first to admit that it's a rare occasion lately when we see a stock down-move following a significant decline like we witnessed on Thursday. The CzarCharts are still flashing "sell" however off the calendar indicators as well as cap top formations across the complex. Ours is not to reason why...
Also, note the solid either-or buy signals in the bond complex, including six-for six in both the 30- and 10-years. This would probably be what we'd expect if the indexes in fact did move lower.
 

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Art's futures biases for May 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The bond complex is showing buy flashes across the board in both major categories. We're also seeing uncontested buy signals across the currencies.
 

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Art's futures biases for May 15.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The most clear-cut signal for Tuesday is the short side of the Swiss franc, which is not contradicted by the other currencies. You can also argue the buy side of the bond complex based on the less-frequent signal box.
 

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