Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Art's futures biases for Apr 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The best bet for Thusday is the short side of the bond complex, particularly the 30-and 10-year contracts.
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The markets continue to be wishy-washy and consequently, no complex is offering unanimous signals for Friday. The indexes will probably continue their uptrend though if one were to follow the majority of the indicators. Also, the continental currencies are flashing weak but nevertheless uncontested sells.
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 16.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 17.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Tuesday’s index signals are primarily short-oriented. Although we might not expect a particularly huge move immediately following Monday’s surge, the markets are overbought and very ripe for a correction. I believe the calendar short biases in particular are pointing the way at present.

You might also choose to sell the 30- or 10-year bonds off the negative either-or signals.
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The Czar signals are as bearish as they can get in the bond complex. Perhaps it’s a contradiction that the indexes are also showing overall negativity; perhaps not. As always, ours is not to question why, ours is but to follow the systems or die.
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 19.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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All three bond markets continue to maintain, with equal insistence, that a down move is imminent. Note that we’ve seen three up days in a row.

The indexes continue to frustrate. Perhaps this relentless upward pressure is reaching its crescendo just as the last strong monthly seasonals are about to conclude. As I’ve mentioned, there is historical validity to the adage “sell in May and go away.”
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts are saying that we should see continued selling in the bond complex on Friday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 23.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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This marks five days out of seven that the June S&P futures have closed within two points of their daily highs, and if you think that's normal behavior, you haven't been looking at much market history. I must confess though, I'm not sure of the moral of the story. The CzarCharts for Monday favor the bullish side, and it would not be unreasonable to take long positions in the Nasdaq and Russell. Obviously it's risky to buy at overextended levels but on the other hand, research does not support ideas of "too high" or "too low." As my partner has said, the market will keep doing what it's doing, until it doesn't.
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The majority of the index indicators continue to line up on the buy-side, but again, the setup is not as clear-cut as I’d ideally like. You do have a solid either-or negative flash in the S&Ps. I would not strenuously argue against reading the markets individually, however, so if you’re inclined to make a move on Tuesday, you could be justified in buying the Russell or the Nasdaq.

I do have to confess to one additional personal prejudice, however. CNBC is going over the top again with their perma-bull boolah boolah routine. They posted the number of points away from 13,000 (or was it the points away from a new record close?—same difference) pretty much all day long. They displayed floor traders wearing shirts trumpeting how they were bullish and loving it. This kind of arrogance usually spanks traders on an individual basis. I don’t see why the financial network shouldn’t be subject to the same anger of the trading gods, but on the other hand, they have gotten away with a bull market that’s lived more or less as long as my 24-year-old daughter.

There’s not much help in other areas unless you care to follow the solidly bullish reading in the Swiss franc.
 

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Art's futures biases for Apr 25.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts are urging buys in the indexes, except the Nasdaq which is neutral. The Russell offers the most attractive bet. Yes, I realize the crazy overdone upside is a scary prospect at present, but that only argues for the likelihood the signals' correctness.
Also for Wednesday, expect to see down moves in the 30-year bonds and the Japanese yen.
 

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