Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007

Hi Art,
I followed your work on Tiger Shark Trading and I found it very interesting. Thanks for making it available.

Congratulations on your 2006 results. They are solid numbers. It takes guts to do what you're doing - kudos.

Syswizard you might want to start your own journal rather than polluting Art's thread.

All the best,
bolter
 
bolter wrote--

Hi Art,
I followed your work on Tiger Shark Trading and I found it very interesting. Thanks for making it available.

Congratulations on your 2006 results. They are solid numbers. It takes guts to do what you're doing - kudos.

Syswizard you might want to start your own journal rather than polluting Art's thread.

All the best,
bolter
------------------

I appreciate your support, Bolter, as well as all comments i get on this thread. I urge everyone to check out the recent flurry of responses. Yes, it does get frustrating when the stock market goes into these mini-bubbles without letup, and it happens more often than i've observed in other markets. but then, stock-related markets are more psychologically driven than other markets, and human behvior tends to go to extremes. i love buffet's quote noted a few threads back--i've never heard that before, but i've always said something similar albeit less articulately.
Mr. Bolter, I never found syswizard's comments insulting, but even if he were disagreeing, i consider that welcome feedback. sometimes market life begats passionate discussion, and that's all well and good by me.
i don't have much to say for tuesday--the only uncontested bias being a single buy signal across the board in the bond second box.
 
Art's futures biases for Jan 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 17.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The buy side of the bond complex is uncontested in all markets and both signal categories. The indexes are flashing solid sell signals. Ignore the daily indicators in the calendar boxes—they are skewed by the fact that the week did not start on Monday.
 

Attachments

Art's futures biases for Jan 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

Great job Art keep up the good work!

2 quick questions;

a) How did your signals fare on the currencies based on {buy on the open-sell on the close} for 2006?

b) What times {NY-EST} are you basing your calulations off for the currencies?

Thanking you.
 
jonnysharp wrote
Great job Art keep up the good work!

2 quick questions;

a) How did your signals fare on the currencies based on {buy on the open-sell on the close} for 2006?

b) What times {NY-EST} are you basing your calulations off for the currencies?

Thanking you.
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hi jonny.
all posted times are central standard. i don't know the exact breakdown of the currency results--sorry. historically they tend to to not as well as the others i use. i may find time to do more of a breakdown, but on feb 20, i'm lecturing at the ny traders expo. they're slave drivers (i'm saying good naturedly). they're getting their hour and a half lecture--taking me a while to prepare--but then they also want an hour presentation to be used as teaching material, and i've got interviews scheduled and i'm appearing at the booths of my past and present publishers. again, i love it--i'm not complaining. (maybe bragging). but between that, still writing article reviews, appearing in the tiger shark chat room, trying to assist my new home at bob pardo's website and trading, i'm a busy guy. maybe after feb i'll be able to provide additonal breakdowns.
stay sharpjonny,
 
Pure mechanical is a fallacy. AT BEST entry is more mechanical than exit. Any battle hardened trader, professional athletes and or industry execs all "SHOULD" confirm that even the best laid plans can and will go array.
 
"If you want something done quickly - give to a busy person."*

*A saying in the UK.

Art said: "i'm a busy guy. maybe after feb i'll be able to provide additonal breakdowns. stay sharpjonny,"

There was a professor Heathcote Parkinson at the London School of Economics, used to come with quirky rules (wonderful man - sadly he died a short while ago). He came up with a similar rule:

"A task takes as long to do as the time available in which to do it."

Another one of his I like is: "Expenditure rises to meet income."

Art, sorry if this is off topic.

:)
 
bighog wrote

Pure mechanical is a fallacy. AT BEST entry is more mechanical than exit. Any battle hardened trader, professional athletes and or industry execs all "SHOULD" confirm that even the best laid plans can and will go array


___________________________

oh. well....uh, that's not my experience.
 
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