Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2007
- Thread starter Art Collins
- Start date
Art's futures biases for Jan 10.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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For Wednesday, weâre seeing more indicators joining the sell chorus in the indexes. While the either-or signals are less negative in the bonds than the previous day, they are now being supported by negative open-to-close indicators in all markets. (Specifically, you have two days in a row in which the market closed higher than the open, which is a fade indicator).
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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For Wednesday, weâre seeing more indicators joining the sell chorus in the indexes. While the either-or signals are less negative in the bonds than the previous day, they are now being supported by negative open-to-close indicators in all markets. (Specifically, you have two days in a row in which the market closed higher than the open, which is a fade indicator).
Art's futures biases for Jan 11.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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The bonds continue to flash sell signals, although not as emphatically as yesterday. The indexes however, are building a bigger downside case. The Russell presents the best shorting candidate for Thursday.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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The bonds continue to flash sell signals, although not as emphatically as yesterday. The indexes however, are building a bigger downside case. The Russell presents the best shorting candidate for Thursday.
Art's futures biases for Jan 12.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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The indexes remain locked in sell mode. I would be especially inclined to press that direction in the event of another steady-to-sharply higher opening. I donât think the bulls will get away with the same steady-through-the-day scenario yet again, but obviously Iâve been wrong before.
The currencies are flashing solid buy signals, particularly the Swiss franc.
A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
______________________________________
The indexes remain locked in sell mode. I would be especially inclined to press that direction in the event of another steady-to-sharply higher opening. I donât think the bulls will get away with the same steady-through-the-day scenario yet again, but obviously Iâve been wrong before.
The currencies are flashing solid buy signals, particularly the Swiss franc.
syswizard wrote
Hey Art, since the Dow made new record highs yesterday, some traders may dispute that "sell mode" analysis ! However, I do see the Russell 2000 indicates weakness with that score of -4. ER2 futures have gotten pretty wild lately.....a sign of a top forming ?
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the russell is the best shorting candidate for 1-12.
Hey Art, since the Dow made new record highs yesterday, some traders may dispute that "sell mode" analysis ! However, I do see the Russell 2000 indicates weakness with that score of -4. ER2 futures have gotten pretty wild lately.....a sign of a top forming ?
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the russell is the best shorting candidate for 1-12.
Once again, got my head handed to me in eRL futures...expected some profit-taking around 3:45 pm and then WHOOSH, it was like a tsunami wave of buying. Thank goodness I use stops religiously. Boy, does this period of time ever "feel" like late 1999....with the bears totally demoralized....and valuations just going thru the roof with no fundamental or economic basis. All of the bad reports today in tech land from SAP, AMD, etc....totally ignored. This is getting REALLY crazy.
Maybe it's called a "short squeeze"? Many, including Art and me, thought that after a few days of higher closes that there would be a sell off. I console myself with the thought that if even an expert such as Art can get it wrong then there is still hope for an old duffer like me.
My problem is that I refuse to acknowledge what I'm seeing and sit in stunned disbelief watching the screen waiting for logic to surface. Of course on days like today it doesn't. I really must start using stops but my trouble is that I have a psychological aspect to my character that doesn't like to lock in losses. But it's only money and as Art says: "There's always tomorrow." Or in this instance, next Tuesday.
Regards,
ETUser
My problem is that I refuse to acknowledge what I'm seeing and sit in stunned disbelief watching the screen waiting for logic to surface. Of course on days like today it doesn't. I really must start using stops but my trouble is that I have a psychological aspect to my character that doesn't like to lock in losses. But it's only money and as Art says: "There's always tomorrow." Or in this instance, next Tuesday.
Regards,
ETUser
Bingo....and oh was that ever so apparent in late 1999 !
Late today, I was like "where is all of this buying coming from ?". It's so apparent we are still in a huge liquidity "bubble"....tons of money looking for a place to be parked.
I could get crushed here, but I am going to continue to probe the short side and keep those stop losses tight.