Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Art's futures biases for February 3.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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A note from Art:

Yipes! Look at the string of 30 year bond bear signals! I don't recall ever seeing six unanimous bear biases in the either-or indicators. On top of that, they're occurring just after two up open to closes in a row (a contrary indicator, that is a further bearish evidence).

It's only one trial, as we always say. But it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Art's futures biases for February 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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A note from Art:

No harm done on Monday if you elected to follow the unanimous six bear signals (plus extra) in the 30-year bonds. The market moved up two ticks from the open though the close.

It's still flashing insistent sell indicators, though, as is the 10-year. We expect the play to work in the face of daily reversal up-signals that no doubt are tempting traditionally technical long players.

Art's futures biases for February 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for February 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's comments for tomorrow:

Aggregate signals suggest a downside move in the yen on Thursday. Note the unusual occurrence of seeing three out of a possible five indicator flashes in the relatively extreme infrequent bias box. That could portend some moving and shaking. Two out of those three point downward, in agreement with 5 out of 6 of our either-or indicators.

Art's futures biases for February 9.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for February 10.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for February 13.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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The indexes made an impressive comeback Friday after failing to penetrate support levels. (125600 in the S&P). We expect probable continued downward pressure, however given the CzarChart numbers.

In the S&P, note the unanimous -6 in either-or indicators. The monthly indicator also recently turned negative (mid-month weakness), although the other calendar signals aren't agreeing. I'll cautiously probe the downside on the open, and look for added confirmation if 126525, 125775 and 125600 respectively are breached. I'll tend to lose my conviction, if the 127300 Friday high is taken out.
 
Art's futures biases for February 14.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

Attachments

For Tuesday, I would be more inclined to follow the negative 30-year bond reading than the S&P. The S&P reading is flying in the face of calendar bull signals. The market is also more oversold than the bonds.

I'll consider initiating bond shorts on the open and adding to them at 11202. If the close is very weak, I'll consider holding the trade overnight. I'll consider myself wrong if 11318 is hit on the upside.
 
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