Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Art's futures biases for Dec 15.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The best bet for Monday is to be long either the euro or Swiss franc.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 19.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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There are now solid uncontested buy signals across the board in the indexes. The long side of the S&Ps and Russell are Tuesday's best bets.
 

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zelareka wrote
hi Art

do you have real time trading record for this system?

thanks

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since i'm not presenting an actual system but raw materials that are a step or two away from one, your question would be difficult to answer in anything but an exhaustive and time-consuming fashion. (not that it's an unreasonable question). but on an informal, re-check as needed basis, such as when i update charts for lectures, i'm finding they're humming along well this year, particularly the indexes. but again--"either-ors" only? calendar only? some combo? it gets complicated. suffice it to say, i'm convinced nothing is broken and am continuing to utilyse them in my own trading.
 
Art's futures biases for Dec 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 22.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The day of month indicator has just turned bullish in the indexes. The result is a net long bias in the calendar indicators. Most but not all of the other index signals agree. We should see an up move.

I would have thought something else would have contributed to the bullish scenario: the mere fact that it’s the last trading day before Christmas. There is certainly buy biases in and around holidays, and a definite up tendency during the last week of the year. Surprisingly, though, my testing showed that if you went long from the open to close of the day before Christmas, you’d have slightly more losses than gains as well as a net overall loss. Index markets trade a full day on Friday.

The bond complex is actually showing a more uncontested bias—to the sell side in this case. Remember that those pits close at noon and the electronic trade ends at 1 p.m., both Central Standard Time.

Happy holiday everyone.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
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Expect continued downside pressure in the bond complex on Tuesday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Dec 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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All systems are "go" for continued up-action in the indexes. Aside from the fact that no individual indicator or broad signal category disagrees, we’re now in an especially historic bullish week. There may be something to the argument that this year won’t conform because we’ve already seen significant up-moves leading into the year’s end, but I’m inclined to trust the signals more than such quasi-fundamental analysis. My market of choice for Wednesday will be the S&Ps.
 

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