Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

[Art Collins]

livermore's ghost wrote

A couple of points:

1. The term CzarCharts is really cheesy.
2. Have any of these biases worked recently?

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i generally don't have time to re-summarize how recent trades have been performing. it's irrelevent if you believe in an overall program. but i'll make an exception one time here for mr. great livermore's ghost. up until the last two days when i urged shorts in a (moderately) upward moving index market, i had a fairly decent string of winners in a row. you can go back and check although again, this is a page that charts small biases under the assumption that profit will be possible given a large number of trades. the short run doesn't mean much.

 

[ETUserisme]

Don't feel too bad Art. Although I lack your experience and expertise I too thought the Russell was due for a dive two days running. I capitulated today - now watch it turn on a time

Someone told me that there had been very heavy program trading yesterday and today with the "big money" positioning themselves for expiration day. I have no idea whatsoever if this could be true.

Apropos your comment about lack of time. Have you noticed that the more labor saving devices we get the less time we get to enjoy the time saved? There's a Parkinson's law in there somewhere.

I like the concept and simplicity of your method and thank you for sharing it. I've been paper trading your system on financial instruments and I'm ahead modestly. But for the last two days I would have been ditto on the Russell too. Such is life.

Regards,

ETUser

 

[yip1997]

Quote from Art Collins:

livermore's ghost wrote

A couple of points:

1. The term CzarCharts is really cheesy.
2. Have any of these biases worked recently?

_______________________________

i generally don't have time to re-summarize how recent trades have been performing. it's irrelevent if you believe in an overall program. but i'll make an exception one time here for mr. great livermore's ghost. up until the last two days when i urged shorts in a (moderately) upward moving index market, i had a fairly decent string of winners in a row. you can go back and check although again, this is a page that charts small biases under the assumption that profit will be possible given a large number of trades. the short run doesn't mean much.

Art,

I don't really understand how to use your system. Is yours a reversal system? That means, when you get a "buy" signal, you get in, and get out and reverse when you get a "sell" signal?

 

[Art Collins]

yip1997 wrote

Art,

I don't really understand how to use your system. Is yours a reversal system? That means, when you get a "buy" signal, you get in, and get out and reverse when you get a "sell" signal?

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no, everything is geared toward entering on the opening and exiting on the close. there are three major boxes--the either-or first box, which signals six separate long or short signals every day and the idea is, go long if the last box cumulative total is positive, short if it's negative. the other two boxes work the same way. the second box is less frequently signals, such as what you do if a market closes one direction 4 days in a row and then reverses on the fifth. the third box applies to indexes only. it features time related indicators--what day of the month, month of year and day of week you're in. you can find the rationale-studies of all these earlier in the site.
as far as how to use them--you can take your pick. follow the first series only, for example. that would give you an historical result good enough to cover trading costs. ditto for doing either of the others alone
what i do in part is treat each sector--(indexes, bonds, currencies) as two or three cumulative totals. if i'm seeing only one direction, positive or negative across all three of the sector markets that is not contradicted by any opposite signs--neutral would be the worst it would get--then i tend to think it's urging a move in that direction and i go with it. i do trade off other indicators though, many of which serve in effect as stops or reversals etc. it's not easy to include everything i'm doing. you can get more info from my just released book, which i won't mention by name out of respect for the sensibilities of this site, but email me and i'll give you more info.
artcollins@ameritech.net
hope i've helped somewhat

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Nov. 17.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Despite a record close in the Dow over which CNBC anchors were doing their usual boola boola cartwheels, the Russell actually closed lower. Furthermore, that market formed a bearish 3 day cap formation, which, in tandem with negative flashes in its other two major category boxes, makes it a good selling candidate for Friday.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Nov. 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

 

[Wetton]

Hi Art.

I noticed the bias for the Nasdaq on Monday is quite negative. Does it follow that the more negative the bias, the stronger the signal? Thanks.

 

[Art Collins]

wetton wrote-

Hi Art.

I noticed the bias for the Nasdaq on Monday is quite negative. Does it follow that the more negative the bias, the stronger the signal? Thanks.

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my research shows that the only thing that really matters is whether you're positive or negative. You get more confimation if both the either-or and other less frequent indicators (and calendar in the case of the indexes) agree. it's also ideal to have none of the signs within the complex contradict--in other words, i'd rather not see a +1 in the russell even if all three major s&P boxes are negative, or a combination of negative and neutral, (which you're seeing for monday.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Nov. 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The indexes are showing uncertainty. As early as Wednesday, the calendar signals could turn net positive as we begin to approach the normally bullish monthly rollover.
The best bet for Tuesday appears to be the long side of the bond complex, particularly the 30-year.

 

[Art Collins]

Art's futures biases for Nov. 22.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Trading pretty much dries up around holidays, and the CzarCharts often dovetail by going into neutral mode. I will accordingly not be trading on Wednesday. Have a nice holiday everyone.