Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2006

Art's futures biases for Oct. 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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All markets are showing solid downside biases for Friday. I'll still be working the short side of the Russell, but any other market has roughly the same bearish validity.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The either-or-indicators are neutral in the indexes, but the other two signal boxes are urging sells. Obviously, a down-move has been way-overdue. I’m confident there should be at least one day of follow-through.

Similarly, the other two complexes are also again in bear mode.
 

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Art's futures biases for Oct. 31.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts still urge sells in the indexes. Keep in mind though that this signal probably won’t extend much beyond Tuesday. On Thursday, the month-of year indicator will begin its six month bullish bias. Obviously, that’s one indicator among several I follow, and we will continue to get overall signals on both sides of the market. All other things being equal, though, the November through May timeframe is historically the best time of the year to see strong stock related performance. When the signal flips to the buy side on Thursday, it will be in tandem with the day-of-month bias, which shows strength in-and-around month ends.
Obviously, the fact that we have already seen strong moves during the expected sell phase may or may not impact the expected future trajectories. It could be we’re just in a rousing bull market, and may see over-performance during expected as well as unexpected periods. As they say, stay tuned. In the meantime, I’ll be selling the S&Ps on Tuesday.

CORRECTION--
Sorry everybody. I misread the readings in the less-frequent indicators. The fact that they are positive across the board in the indexes means that the overall bias is pretty much neutral, possibly even slightly bullish. As there are no standouts in the other complexes, I won't be trading off the CzarCharts on Tuesday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov. 1.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov. 2.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Look for a rally in the indexes on Thursday. The odds of this happening increase if the markets open slightly lower.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov. 3.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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There are definitive sell signals across the bond complex. Friday’s best play would be the short side of the 30-year.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov. 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.


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Friday’s mini-drop in the indexes looks to be over for now. The CzarCharts are urging buys across the board. Accordingly, I will be aggressively entering the long side of the Russell on Monday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov. 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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It’s probably a good idea to avoid the indexes for Tuesday. Although the either-ors are largely negative and the calendars have turned south as we approach the normally bearish mid-month time frame, there are two cup bottoms in the second indicator box. Beside, the indexes made a huge move on Monday, and that’s usually followed by a choppy mishmash. A better bet would be to get long any of the bonds and/or the euro.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov. 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Note that in the less-frequent signal box, all fifth-line indicators are in sell mode. This means that all markets have moved up in tandem for two days in a row, normally a negative indicator. Combine it with the fact that much market activity has centered on election speculation and you might have a Wednesday setup of "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact.” Certainly the indexes are urging shorts for Wednesday. That’s where and how I’ll be placing my bets.
 

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Art's futures biases for Nov. 9.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The Thursday index CzarCharts show three higher open-closes in a row plus other supporting bearish evidence. I’m game to again attempt the short side.
 

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