Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2005

Here are my futures biases for December 5.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

Here are my futures biases for December 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

Here are my futures biases for December 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

As an ex software guy I do think mechanical systems can and do work but I would not say it is a prerequisite of success as empirical evidence to the contrary of many many famous and successful discretionary ones.
Quote from Art Collins:

I'm Art Collins, a published book author, lecturer, and a frequent contributor to Futures Magazine. I'm also a 17-year Chicago Board of Trade member, professional futures trader and mechanical system advocate.

I'm here to share system ideas and for camaraderie, something I miss from my days on the floor. I've decided to keep a daily journal on Elite Trader as a way to generate more feedback on my system ideas. Each day, I will post my daily market biases to keep the discussion going.

Here are some of my core beliefs. Feel free to add feedback, call foul on me, or whatever.
1. The average trader can't succeed unless he or she is 100% mechanical. Most of us can not "hear what the markets are telling us" because for all practical purposes, the markets ain't saying squat.
2. Human psychology tends to be drastically out of synch with what is needed to trade successfully.
3. When one combines mechanical with discretionary, one tends to get the worst of both worlds.
4. Simple is best.
5. Basic elements can be combined to create greater wholes.
6. Day trading can work, but there are inherent problems compared to other types of trading. The main problem lies in the relatively small trading arcs compared to trading costs.
7. Ideas have to test well over a fairly wide array of times and markets in order to be considered trustworthy.
8. When you do decide to trade a mechanical system, you must adequately budget for it. You must also follow all signals exactly as mandated.

Art
More...
 
m millar wrote
Art,

Thanks for sharing this. It's great to see a thread on Elite remain civilised.

I haven't looked in detail yet but I just have some initial questions...

What kind of stops are you using on your performance reports? Is this just buy at open/sell at close?

Also, in the peformance report above (from the last post on this page) , the profit per trade is only $40, which is less than 1 tick on the full-sized Naz (which for a system trader makes it untradeable). Are you just using this as a guide to say "I'm in the right direction" rather than as a 'system'?

Thanks

[/quote]

hey m--
all i've been showing to date are percentage plays--basic building blocks that have not yet been combined into definitive systems. i'm hoping that if someone is planning on being, say, short the yen, while the bias might not abort their diecision or methodology, it will serve as another tool for decision making. it can't hurt to know that bonds on a given day have a +5 rating, and that each component within that figure stands on its own historically--it tends to make more money than it loses, and combined, the results are even better.
hope i've stated this clearly. (i'm buried under a lot of work right now, trying to meet a tight deadline on my next book)
 
Here are my futures biases for December 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

Here are my futures biases for December 8.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

Here are my futures biases for December 12.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

Here are my futures biases for December 13.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

Art, I have followed the thread since the start and just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to do it.

Good luck and good trading.

Bsulli
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top