Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2005

[mmillar]

Quote from Art Collins:

setharb wrote
a little on the former. a friend of mine showed me some interesting correlation between big volume and 5 minute turning points--very basic stuff that is widely known no doubt. i can see it's an area worth exploring.
what's the best way to get cot totals? are there other trader sentiment reports that are easily accessed?
(we consider all possibilities in the art collins labs) .

Assuming you have TS8 there is a thread here on how to bring COT data into TS for backtesting...

https://www.tradestation.com/Discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=41575

 

[mmillar]

Quote from Art Collins:

Here's the full sized Nasdaq from Trade Station.

Art,

Thanks for sharing this. It's great to see a thread on Elite remain civilised.

I haven't looked in detail yet but I just have some initial questions...

What kind of stops are you using on your performance reports? Is this just buy at open/sell at close?

Also, in the peformance report above (from the last post on this page) , the profit per trade is only $40, which is less than 1 tick on the full-sized Naz (which for a system trader makes it untradeable). Are you just using this as a guide to say "I'm in the right direction" rather than as a 'system'?

Thanks

 

[Art Collins]

hey everyone--
my computer ccrashed three days ago. dave mecklenburg of tiger sharktrading was good enough to post my daily biases. (thanks dave!) i'm just getting back up on email now. i'll be getting around to answering my backlog within a day or two.
hope everyone had a nice holiday.

 

[Art Collins]

setharb wrote

hi art ... happy thanksgiving

have you ever tried doing bias ratings
for markets like
crude oil and gold?

hi seth--
yes. gold is one of the most frustratingly system resistant markets i've ever seen. silver too. crude i've made some stuff work--even stuff that is s&P specific. of course, there, you have to be very cognizant of slippage-commission. those boys in new york just don't seem to play by the same rules we do--at least that was true a few years ago when i was trading there and they wouldn't stand behind limit orders that were penetrated but not filled.
i guess a shorter answer is, crude is probably doable but i haven't found anything to rock my world yet.
later

 

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for November 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

Note the extreme bias in the 30-year bonds.

 

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for November 29.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

 

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for November 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

 

[Art Collins]

setharb wrote

11-23-05 11:44 PM

hello art ... do you ever read other posts here besides your own ?

happy thanksgiving

hi seth
yes i routinely scan other journals. trading is my passion--i read anything i can get my hands on for inspiration (i generally take others' ideas in new directions) or when all else fails, for pure entertainment. there are just so many cool aspects to this buiness, don't you think?

 

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for December 1.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

 

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for December 2.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.