Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2005

Here are my futures biases for tomorrow, October 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

Quote from Art Collins:

Here are my futures biases for tomorrow, October 28.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
More...

Art: Nice system and an informative journal!!!!

Have you ever considered adding the total of S&P, Nasdaq and Russell and using that to trade the indices. For example: S&P total is 0, Nasdaq is 2 and Russell is 2. That is a total of 4 so it is going to be a long bias for S&P, Nasdaq, Russell and Dow. The reason being, when the market moves everything moves together. I do not remember many days recently when the S&P was positive and Nasdaq/Russell were not or vice versa.

If a small independent trader trades S&P only with this system, that trader would be kicking himself for missing the huge move on Friday. Just a thought.

Once again thanks for your contribution. Would love to hear more from you regarding how the big traders that you've known in the last 17 years handle setbacks and successes or any other stories from you.

Gotta go!!! See my beloved Huskers beat the Sooners today.
 
doubleea wrote
Art: Nice system and an informative journal!!!!

Have you ever considered adding the total of S&P, Nasdaq and Russell and using that to trade the indices. For example: S&P total is 0, Nasdaq is 2 and Russell is 2. That is a total of 4 so it is going to be a long bias for S&P, Nasdaq, Russell and Dow. The reason being, when the market moves everything moves together. I do not remember many days recently when the S&P was positive and Nasdaq/Russell were not or vice versa.

If a small independent trader trades S&P only with this system, that trader would be kicking himself for missing the huge move on Friday. Just a thought.
More...

It's certainly food for thought, although you may be surrised at how uncorrelated the indexes can be at times. i know i was back when i started researching the relationship. but i will probably get around to further investigation and will keep you posted.
thanks for the idea and your encouragement.
art
 
Here are my futures biases for tomorrow, October 31.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

protrader2k5 wrote
Kudos Art!

Now we got to get you to do it on a intraday basis
More...
right, especially considering the closing freefall. (not even the s&P desk knew what that was).
i shoud have some intraday stuff up pretty soon.
 
I suppose since I’m “dispensing advice,” I should have a better idea of what this periodic end-of the-month index price alteration is all about. I’m referring to the fact that sometimes on the last day of the month, they post an official closing price that is in left field—often completely outside the closing price range, and sometimes several points away from the last tick.

Today may be the most extreme example ever. The last tick in the mini S&Ps was 120325. The official settlement was 120975. (SIX AND A HALF POINTS!!) I’m told it has something to do with adjusting the index to keep in line with stocks or something or other. (Actually, I suspect it has more to do with the fact that the powers that be always want to put the most bullish face possible forward. God knows why—do we really believe we’re going to suspend the natural laws of economics?)

I’m being a little tongue-in-check here. (“Little” is the operative word.)

My esteemed colleagues seem as perplexed as I am. I have reliable information sources in general, but no one no can shed definitive light on this little maneuver.

The differential though, obviously affects my signals. I can’t imagine any mechanical trader not struggling with the same issue. I’m going to have to reluctantly accept the goofy official closes. Doing anything else would necessitate hours of readjusting spreadsheets and probably getting inaccurate results from so much manual interference. Besides that, all historical testing incorporates official prices. What else would you use if you were looking back in history and didn’t know any better?

This is one of those one time anomalies we’re stuck with. I would suggest not acting off any of the posted daily indicators in the S&Ps, Nasdaq and Russell.

Here are my futures biases for tomorrow, November 1.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.
 

Attachments

Quote from bali_survivor:


Maria



The Amazing Human Mind

I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdagnieg.
The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid.

Aodccrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dnsoe't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are,

the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae.

The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm.

Tihs is bcuseae the hmuan mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe.

Azmanig huh? Yaeh, and I awlyas tghuoht slpeling was ipmorantt
More...


Unbelievably cool.

I'm a little scared though 'cause I could actually read it faster and better than regular prose!!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top