Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2005

[Art Collins]

setharb wrote

Posts: 3459


10-24-05 09:57 PM

art ... do you ever look at changes in ( futures ) open interest totals or even COT report totals ?

a little on the former. a friend of mine showed me some interesting correlation between big volume and 5 minute turning points--very basic stuff that is widely known no doubt. i can see it's an area worth exploring.
what's the best way to get cot totals? are there other trader sentiment reports that are easily accessed?
(we consider all possibilities in the art collins labs) .

 

[Art Collins]

Interesting journal but I have to disagree with the statement about discretionary traders.

I believe they are the ONLY ones that last.

good discretionary traders would never understand not dealing with "bad trades in progress." they wouldn't understand dealing with drawdowns, or the whole nature of the numbers game. a friend of mine is a very successful feel trader. another successful one let my partner and i manage a trading system. we had to sell him first obviously and he wanted to know what kind of losses we could conceivably sit through. this was an interday system with EXTREMELY wide stops. he nearly jumped out of his chair. "iT TAKES YOU 100 S&P POINTS TO KNOW YOU'RE WRONG!!??"

things like this put it in perspective on how rough the mechanical road is. that's why most pipe dreamers don't want to believe in the necessity of such a pathway. it's hard work. it's not fun. and you do have to sit through big losses, have your confidence shaken, etc.

if you're a successful feel trader, not only can i not argue with you, but i envy you.

most people aren't. way WAY most people.

big clue...if you're not making money and you haven't since day 1 and day one is more than a couple months back, you're not likely to improve. i must in all due modesty refer you to the following link on tiger shark. again in all due modesty, i think this article says it all. but i know i'm going to be defending this position from now until doomsday.

here's an article that i already wrote that's on his topic.

http://www.tigersharktrading.com/Articles/56/1/The-Problem-with-Non(13)Mechanical-Trading.aspx

 

[Art Collins]

empee wrote

very nice thread, thanks art!

thank YOU empee! (that one was easy!)

 

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for tomorrow, October 26.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

 

[Samson77]

Art nice call on the 10 year today

 

[Art Collins]

samson77 wrote
Art nice call on the 10 year today
[/quote]
thanks mr. samson. you might want to give special consideration to signals that get to +/-3 levels or beyond.

 

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for tomorrow, October 27.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

 

[bali_survivor]

Quote from Art Collins:

good discretionary traders would never understand not dealing with "bad trades in progress." they wouldn't understand dealing with drawdowns, or the whole nature of the numbers game. .....

Perhaps true in most of the cases but not all of the cases. In our case you could not be more mistaken. Keep on dreaming with the numbers and systems game.

Maria

 

[Art Collins]

bali survive said

Perhaps true in most of the cases but not all of the cases. In our case you could not be more mistaken. Keep on dreaming with the numbers and systems game.

Maria

maria-
i don't think we have a point of contention. i've been conceding all along, some people can trade with discretion. i know one guy who has done it year after year and lives in an historical landmark house near wrigley field that would make many hollywood people envious.
i have also said most people can't, which you just said.
but wouldn't you also agree, it would be better to be in the minority who test and trade winning systems correctly than to be in the vast multitudes who continue to throw money at the markets, wondering why they aren't learning something?

 

[Art Collins]

LAST THREE OF OUR EIGHT INDICATORS

The last three of our eight indicator array are not either-or indicators. They signal less often under more specialized circumstances. That means that some days, you can have a total long-short daily bias that was comprised of as little as five indicators, as many as eight or somewhere in between.

At any rate, when we combine elements, we want to have faith in each individual component, which is why I have been posting performance summaries for each. Table 1 shows the results of the last three indicators. To review:

1. Cups, as we define them, are three days in row in which the second day has both the lowest low and the lowest close. Are second qualifier is that the day 2 low must also be lower than the three lows that precede it. For caps it’s the opposite—highest high and close in the second of three days. Day two also has a higher high than the three days that precede it. Cups denote buys (+), caps sells (-).

2. Again looking at three days in a row—if the highest low minus the lowest low is less than or equal to 20 percent of the entire three day range (highest high minus lowest low), that suggest a support level. The three lows have been bunched up—it’s a buy bias. (+). You compute a sell bias the same way comparing the three highs to the total three day range.

3. If today’s close was lower than the open and yesterday’s close was lower than yesterday’s open, that’s a buy bias for tomorrow. Vice versa if both closes were higher than their opens.