Odds Czar: Simple Biases in the Futures Markets 2005

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for tomorrow, October 24

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

 

[marketsurfer]

it's great to see you here, art. i am enjoying the thread!

surfer

 

[Art Collins]

marketsurfer

wrote
it's great to see you here, art. i am enjoying the thread!

surfer

thanks surfer dude! yours ain't half bad either!

 

[Samson77]

Art

Interesting journal but I have to disagree with the statement about discretionary traders.

I believe they are the ONLY ones that last.

 

[Art Collins]

walther wrote

If a daily range is smaller than the average 10 day range, the direction of the close, up or down, suggests the next day’s bias. In other words, if the range is smaller than average, buy after a higher close or sell after a lower one.

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Just a word of caution. Above will not work for daytrading Indexes. Especially if open gaps.

i have to respectfully stand by the results i posted earlier. i will look further into how gaps affect the idea though.
thanks

 

[Art Collins]

Here are my futures biases for tomorrow, October 25.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long (L) bias. A negative sum will be a short (S) bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral (0) bias.

 

[empee]

very nice thread, thanks art!

 

[SethArb]

art ... do you ever look at changes in ( futures ) open interest totals or even COT report totals ?

 

[bali_survivor]

Quote from LondonUSTrader:

.....

That is why no mechanical system will ever beat a good discretionary trader.

To get towards Jessie Livermoore type results one needs a bit more than a mechanical system. In addition a mechanical system is lagging. It is not 100% adaptive and therefor has a limited lifespan.

Maria



The Amazing Human Mind

I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdagnieg.
The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid.

Aodccrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dnsoe't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are,

the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae.

The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm.

Tihs is bcuseae the hmuan mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe.

Azmanig huh? Yaeh, and I awlyas tghuoht slpeling was ipmorantt

 

[protrader-2K5]

bali survior...

that is way cool!

I don't use that word very often but man... I be passing that around...

Art, nice call today!