Odds Czar: Simple Biases In the Futures Market: 2009

scjohn writes

I am a bit confused on one of your indicator values for your March 26, 2009 Futures biases. I am looking under the S&P column at the row titled: Majority 3-day Open-Close. Today's value is zero(0). According to your very first post, the definition for this indicator is -" Bullish if at least two out of the last three closes were lower than the opens." Based upon this definition, I do not see any circumstance that could result in a value of 0. It would seem that you would always get either a 1 or -1. Would you please enlighten me as to why today's value is zero.

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you can get zeros when a price is an exact tie with the indicator. in the three days you're talking about, you had one up and one down open-to-close. wednesday closed at it's daily opening price--ergo a three day tie.
 
Art's futures biases for Mar 25.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Single dissenting vote aside, the CzarCharts like the long side of the bond complex for Friday. Note the uanimous top box reading in the 5-year
 

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Has anybody tried to put this formulas anywhere other then trade station ( as described in the book )
I tried for thinkorswim but no success...
 
I have coded the 6 indicators in NinjaTrader based upon their description contained in the very first post of this thread. Do to the brief description(s) I do not know how accurate my coding is at implementing the indicators. I do not have the book.
 
Quote from scJohn:

I have coded the 6 indicators in NinjaTrader based upon their description contained in the very first post of this thread. Do to the brief description(s) I do not know how accurate my coding is at implementing the indicators. I do not have the book.
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Do you get the same results as Art?

ETUser
 
Art's futures biases for Mar 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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I'd be bullish the indices for Monday were it not for two things--cap tops in the second box and a tendency for Monday to follow Friday, particularly off overbought levels. Note that the previous Friday's down-move was followed by a hyper-up-move on Monday. It's usually a good idea to bet against exact replays.
The bond and currency complexes are both giving uncontested buy signals.
 

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Quote from Art Collins:


I'd be bullish the indices for Monday were it not for two things--cap tops in the second box and a tendency for Monday to follow Friday, particularly off overbought levels.
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Can you please clarify: is it buy or sell on Monday? According to your biases it's S&P buy, right?
 
gk is hot wrote

Can you please clarify: is it buy or sell on Monday? According to your biases it's S&P buy, right?

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It's predominantly bullish, but the dissenting factors I mentioned make me reluctant to buy. I probably won't trade the indices on Monday.
 
ETUserisme. Do not have access to continuous futures contract. Only have the current expiry contract(s). Some of the lookback periods are greater than what I have data for because the Index complex just rolled over about a week ago. Using the cash indexs, I do seem to be pretty close.

parsamkk. Read the very 1st post. A very brief description of the 6 indicators are given about 2/3 of the way down.
 
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