Odds Czar: Simple Biases In the Futures Market: 2009

Art's futures biases for Jul 13.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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According to the CzarCharts, we should expect down moves in the indices on Friday, particularly the S&Ps.
 

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I know Art welcomes comments on his Czar system. I have a comment on the calendar bias. My comment is based on the 2009 Stock Traders Almanac:

It has long been known that markets go up on the first day of every month (except August). This tendency is huge- a system that bought only that day and shorted every other would be quite profitable.

A more precise system would be long the "Super 8 Days`which are 5 days around month end and the 3 middle days.

Traders Almanac also has a daily profitable percent number for each trading day of the year. Yesterday was 33% for the S&P- a bearish signal day (but it was up). Today is bullish- up 67% of the time. Czar chart has it bearish, though. Today, barring a large late rally, Czar chart is correct and Traders Almanac is wrong.

The biggest difference from Czar charts is the middle 3 days of the month. My view is that these days should be neutral. The TA stats in my TA book (2009) are a year out of date and don`t include the sell-off of the last 12 months.
 
Art's futures biases for Jul 17.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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Traditional technical analysis suggests the stock market may be finally rounding the corner to the downside and for Monday, anyway, the CzarCharts are in agreement.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Tuesday, note the uncontewsted -6 reading in the Swiss franc.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 18.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 20.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts are expecting down moves in the indices and a rally in the bond complex on Thursday
 

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Art, when calculating the 10 day range average, do you include the current day in those 10 days, or not and have 11 days (the 10 days before today, and then todays compared to those other 10 days but not included in the average)?

Thanks for the reply and for continuing to post this
 
pjhaggerty wrote
Art, when calculating the 10 day range average, do you include the current day in those 10 days, or not and have 11 days (the 10 days before today, and then todays compared to those other 10 days but not included in the average)?

Thanks for the reply and for continuing to post this
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10 days only. average includes most recent day.
 
Art's futures biases for Aug 21.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The CzarCharts continue to anitipate an overdue down-side move in the indices on Friday.
 

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Art's futures biases for Aug 24.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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