Odds Czar: Simple Biases In the Futures Market: 2008

Art, do appreciate your continuing posts here.

Just thought up a question, you have no calender biases to the right of the indexes, would that be due to not doing the research or failing to find any corelations to the days of the week etc.

Thanks, again Chris

And did I miss the year end review of how these biases held up last year?
 
Art's futures biases for Jan 29.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Tuesday, expect an up-move in the currencies, particularly the yen.
 

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Art's futures biases for Jan 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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The bond signals are the strongest for Wednesday, but the indices are also flashing buys. I can't imagine both predictors will be correct, although that's not an impossibility.
It all goes in the big hopper. If you make more on your winning side than your losing side, you're happy.
 

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Art's futures biases for Jan 31.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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DBLARROW wrote
Art, do appreciate your continuing posts here.

Just thought up a question, you have no calender biases to the right of the indexes, would that be due to not doing the research or failing to find any corelations to the days of the week etc.

Thanks, again Chris

And did I miss the year end review of how these biases held up last year?
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Thank you Chris. The calendar biases relate to the indices only, probably for psychological reasons. There tends to be greater than average buying in and around monthly ends due to window dressing. Portfolio managers want to buy hot stocks to be able to advertise that they owned them: never mind that they didn't own them at a time that could have done their investors any good. The other biases work in similar fashion.
Actually, I have noticed that seasonal biases test pretty well in bonds also. Maybe I'll start expanding the site when I get the time to examine them in depth. And no, you haven't missed any year end review. I was on vacation away from internet access at the year's end and just haven't had time to look at them. Stay tuned though.
 
Art's futures biases for Jan 30.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Friday, the CzarCharts are enthusiastically arguing for the long side of the bond complex.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 4.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 5.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Tuesday, the continental currency indicators continue to be bullish. Note that they are now in direct opposition to the yen.
The index market is starting to strike me as a place where virtually anything can happen. I'm betting the lows we saw a couple weeks ago will not be taken out in the near future, contrary to widespread expectations. I do see Tuesday as a probable selling opportunity, however, even though the signals aren't unanimous. At this time, I feel confident going with the majority.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 6.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Wednesday, the CzarCharts are calling for an about-face in the stock market to the upside. This would certainly be true to the usual historic pattern of choppy action with an upward bias following huge down days.
 

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Art's futures biases for Feb 7.

A "1" means bullish bias. A "-1" means bearish bias. The total is the sum of biases. A positive sum will be long bias. A negative sum will be a short bias. A sum of zero will be a neutral bias.

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For Thursday, the CzarCharts are flashing buy signals in the indices and sells in the bond complex.
 

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